I'm curious if the Strength In Numbers data that is linked here is what was used to arrive at the 4-6 million estimate? If so, I think it may explain the discrepancies I'm seeing in the numbers being reported on the ground. For instance, our march in Fayetteville, AR had over 10,000 people attending (still awaiting official confirmation before submitting an edit), but the Strength In Numbers document listed only 1,500! It was submitted by a local news station, and frankly one that is notoriously biased. If that is occurring around the country, then I can see why there is a giant gap between 4 mil and 13 mil (which is what is being reported from sources on the ground).
Excellent work! One quick question/possible correction - you say at the end Trump's approval is the lowest since 1935 ... do you mean 1953 (which is when the data linked to seems to start?). And if so you should clarify "since data was collected in 1953" because how it now reads makes it seem like the person in 1935 or 1953 was worse..
But look that shows I read all the way through! And the link! Closely! Kudos!
Hello, I’d suggest obtaining data from 50501 state organizers. Many people reported event numbers there, and I don’t see the data reflected in the Google doc linked in your article. Even in a city like Denver, there were many events organized beyond what occurred downtown.
Hello, I’d suggest obtaining data from 50501 state organizers. Many people reported event numbers there, and I don’t see the data reflected in the Google doc linked in your article. Even in a city like Denver, there were many events organized beyond what occurred downtown.
alt national forest just posted, "We’re honored to announce a final count of 13.14 million in attendance across 2,300+ No Kings protests nationwide. It took a little longer to finalize due to the sheer scale, but the turnout was historic!
So far, 71 MAGA agitators have been arrested, with 62 additional investigations still underway. We’re actively reviewing online threats and working on escalating where needed. If you see something, say something."
and their method is, "How was the count conducted? Over 140,000 coalition members attended events across the country, at least one at nearly every protest. Many traveled far and got to see some amazing small towns along the way. Local authorities provided crowd estimates, which were then reported back and compiled for the final count."
In Utah the 10 k number for Ogden is probably inflated by a factor of 2 to 3. We were at the Ogden rally and our group of 8 people estimated the crowd size at 2-5 k. There were protests in other small locations that did not get counted on your spreadsheet (Ephraim, Bluff, kanab) and the flux of protestors coming and going makes the Utah numbers solid IMO. At least in aggregate. As organizers of 4 rallies and vigils we have volunteers that count attendees repeatedly during the event. Media in our red town consistently under-report the numbers unless we push back with real data.
I was also in Chicago. There were something like 10 to 15 blocks solid with marchers. I spoke to a march marshal and she thought it was well beyond the Hands Off march which was 15K. She was hoping for 50K. The Chicago Tribune offered an estimate of 15K, which I thought was ridiculous. Haven't seen any other estimates. The NYT posted an aerial photo on line Saturday (maybe from the drone I saw high above the crowd) and guessed "tens of thousands". (That picture was not in Sunday's article in the physical paper.) The Trib is notoriously conservative. The 2017 Women's March was estimated *by the police* at 750K, and the Harvard Crowd Counting Consortium says that one was 250K, sourced with a *single* estimate by the Trib. If we extrapolate their laughable 15K estimate by the same factor of 3 difference between the cops and the paper, we come up with 45K. I don't know what the number should be, but my guess would be somewhere between 40K and 75K. My friend Paul Horton and I were very near the front of the march, and we may not have had a good sense of the size of the crowd.
Alt National Park Service ( https://www.facebook.com/AltUSNationalParkService) collected reports of attendance as the day went on and came up with a final figure of 12.1 million...they've been doing this for a while - has anyone contacted them to see how they collected their data?
Thanks for this analysis & the transparency around data and methodology. I’m seeing both 50501 and Alt National Park Service claim “official” turnout of 11-12M without any backing evidence. How long do you think it will take for these widely divergent good faith estimates to come into alignment?
Ely, MN. I estimate that, at noon, there were about 75 people total, standing on each side of the Main Street next to the park. (I’m not local, so I don’t know the names of places.) The crowd was cheerful and there were lots of great signs. My favorite “Know your parasites” with a drawing of a wood tick and of the President, labeled “wood tick” and “Luna tick.”
EVENTUALLY -- some brave media outlet will ask for -- and receive ? -- the National Parks Service estimate of the crowd in D.C. They (the National parks Service) will be cowed by Trump administration bullies -- and not want to get into a back and forth over "the biggest crowd E V E R" to watch a military parade in D.C . Because of the overcast -- there are no satellite photos...
The Washington Post didn't go near estimating coward size in its coverage -- but to say that the free-of-charge reviewing stand directly across from Trump's stand was "half empty."
Per my cartoon & Text -- https://scarythought.substack.com/p/i-love-a-parade-but-not-this-one -- no one will know the cost of this event unless Congress asks -- and only then after the fiscal year ends. $50 M estimate? $100 M reserve asked by the mayor's office to fix torn up streets?
For the mat people here -- what is the cost per attendee for $10s of millions of costs divided by 10s of thousands of parade attendees? = $ per attendee? And then ask how does this compare to _____ -- pick your program, recently cut by Trump?
12.1 million people showed up, not 4-5, this is grossly misleading and downplaying the absolute push back that is occuring due to racism, incompetence, and treason occuring from the White House and their supporters.
Just going by my city (San Diego), not long after the event was scheduled to end, the SDPD estimated 'over 60k', but people kept coming and by evening there were groups and news groups reporting 100,000. At this point, it's hard to know whether either of those estimates included other gatherings in SD city suburbs and there were several. Plus many of the surrounding smaller towns held their own events and were listed on the organizers websites. I'm hoping that in the next day or so, we might get a number for the entire county. In all of that there were no problems, altercations, violence, damages, or arrests. AND, I hope they count the baby carried in a sling by Mom and bearing a sign, "Babies Against Trump". Such a wonderful and inspiring end to a day that began with such tragic and violent news.
My husband and I were at a protest not on the Guardian map, organized by a Democrat women group, with 162 attending. That's in Fayette County, PA.
I'm curious if the Strength In Numbers data that is linked here is what was used to arrive at the 4-6 million estimate? If so, I think it may explain the discrepancies I'm seeing in the numbers being reported on the ground. For instance, our march in Fayetteville, AR had over 10,000 people attending (still awaiting official confirmation before submitting an edit), but the Strength In Numbers document listed only 1,500! It was submitted by a local news station, and frankly one that is notoriously biased. If that is occurring around the country, then I can see why there is a giant gap between 4 mil and 13 mil (which is what is being reported from sources on the ground).
Excellent work! One quick question/possible correction - you say at the end Trump's approval is the lowest since 1935 ... do you mean 1953 (which is when the data linked to seems to start?). And if so you should clarify "since data was collected in 1953" because how it now reads makes it seem like the person in 1935 or 1953 was worse..
But look that shows I read all the way through! And the link! Closely! Kudos!
Hello, I’d suggest obtaining data from 50501 state organizers. Many people reported event numbers there, and I don’t see the data reflected in the Google doc linked in your article. Even in a city like Denver, there were many events organized beyond what occurred downtown.
Hello, I’d suggest obtaining data from 50501 state organizers. Many people reported event numbers there, and I don’t see the data reflected in the Google doc linked in your article. Even in a city like Denver, there were many events organized beyond what occurred downtown.
alt national forest just posted, "We’re honored to announce a final count of 13.14 million in attendance across 2,300+ No Kings protests nationwide. It took a little longer to finalize due to the sheer scale, but the turnout was historic!
So far, 71 MAGA agitators have been arrested, with 62 additional investigations still underway. We’re actively reviewing online threats and working on escalating where needed. If you see something, say something."
and their method is, "How was the count conducted? Over 140,000 coalition members attended events across the country, at least one at nearly every protest. Many traveled far and got to see some amazing small towns along the way. Local authorities provided crowd estimates, which were then reported back and compiled for the final count."
So how does this affect your estimate?
In Utah the 10 k number for Ogden is probably inflated by a factor of 2 to 3. We were at the Ogden rally and our group of 8 people estimated the crowd size at 2-5 k. There were protests in other small locations that did not get counted on your spreadsheet (Ephraim, Bluff, kanab) and the flux of protestors coming and going makes the Utah numbers solid IMO. At least in aggregate. As organizers of 4 rallies and vigils we have volunteers that count attendees repeatedly during the event. Media in our red town consistently under-report the numbers unless we push back with real data.
I was also in Chicago. There were something like 10 to 15 blocks solid with marchers. I spoke to a march marshal and she thought it was well beyond the Hands Off march which was 15K. She was hoping for 50K. The Chicago Tribune offered an estimate of 15K, which I thought was ridiculous. Haven't seen any other estimates. The NYT posted an aerial photo on line Saturday (maybe from the drone I saw high above the crowd) and guessed "tens of thousands". (That picture was not in Sunday's article in the physical paper.) The Trib is notoriously conservative. The 2017 Women's March was estimated *by the police* at 750K, and the Harvard Crowd Counting Consortium says that one was 250K, sourced with a *single* estimate by the Trib. If we extrapolate their laughable 15K estimate by the same factor of 3 difference between the cops and the paper, we come up with 45K. I don't know what the number should be, but my guess would be somewhere between 40K and 75K. My friend Paul Horton and I were very near the front of the march, and we may not have had a good sense of the size of the crowd.
Alt National Park Service ( https://www.facebook.com/AltUSNationalParkService) collected reports of attendance as the day went on and came up with a final figure of 12.1 million...they've been doing this for a while - has anyone contacted them to see how they collected their data?
Thanks for this analysis & the transparency around data and methodology. I’m seeing both 50501 and Alt National Park Service claim “official” turnout of 11-12M without any backing evidence. How long do you think it will take for these widely divergent good faith estimates to come into alignment?
Ely, MN. I estimate that, at noon, there were about 75 people total, standing on each side of the Main Street next to the park. (I’m not local, so I don’t know the names of places.) The crowd was cheerful and there were lots of great signs. My favorite “Know your parasites” with a drawing of a wood tick and of the President, labeled “wood tick” and “Luna tick.”
Westfield, MA is an undercount. I did a walk around Park Sq and got about 625. I think the organizers were only counting sign-ups.
You can trust me, I was an enumerator for the census in 2010 lol
Commendations for all the hard work.
EVENTUALLY -- some brave media outlet will ask for -- and receive ? -- the National Parks Service estimate of the crowd in D.C. They (the National parks Service) will be cowed by Trump administration bullies -- and not want to get into a back and forth over "the biggest crowd E V E R" to watch a military parade in D.C . Because of the overcast -- there are no satellite photos...
The Washington Post didn't go near estimating coward size in its coverage -- but to say that the free-of-charge reviewing stand directly across from Trump's stand was "half empty."
Per my cartoon & Text -- https://scarythought.substack.com/p/i-love-a-parade-but-not-this-one -- no one will know the cost of this event unless Congress asks -- and only then after the fiscal year ends. $50 M estimate? $100 M reserve asked by the mayor's office to fix torn up streets?
For the mat people here -- what is the cost per attendee for $10s of millions of costs divided by 10s of thousands of parade attendees? = $ per attendee? And then ask how does this compare to _____ -- pick your program, recently cut by Trump?
I would guess estimating "coward size" would normally be tough, but certainly the Patriots were at the No Kings protests!
12.1 million people showed up, not 4-5, this is grossly misleading and downplaying the absolute push back that is occuring due to racism, incompetence, and treason occuring from the White House and their supporters.
I notice 50501 is claiming over 11 million. It's a number suspiciously close to the 3.5% magic number for toppling an authoritarian regime.
I would sure like to know how they got that crowd size estimate.
https://substack.com/@50501/note/c-126017279
Just going by my city (San Diego), not long after the event was scheduled to end, the SDPD estimated 'over 60k', but people kept coming and by evening there were groups and news groups reporting 100,000. At this point, it's hard to know whether either of those estimates included other gatherings in SD city suburbs and there were several. Plus many of the surrounding smaller towns held their own events and were listed on the organizers websites. I'm hoping that in the next day or so, we might get a number for the entire county. In all of that there were no problems, altercations, violence, damages, or arrests. AND, I hope they count the baby carried in a sling by Mom and bearing a sign, "Babies Against Trump". Such a wonderful and inspiring end to a day that began with such tragic and violent news.
Let’s flood news agencies with photos and videos of us out yesterday! We deserve the right, honest coverage across ALL news agencies.
Tell them and Congress 12.1 million Americans protested (current count by Alt National Park Service coalition via Facebook).
Use/share this spreadsheet as a resource to call/email/write members of Congress, the Cabinet and news organizations.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13lYafj0P-6owAJcH-5_xcpcRvMUZI7rkBPW-Ma9e7hw/edit?usp=drivesdk