According to a simple average of new high-quality surveys, 38% of Americans approve and 49% disapprove of U.S. military action in Iran. When ignoring "don't know" respondents, 56% disapprove
Also we can expect Iran to turn into a humanitarian disaster as food, water, and healthcare become scarcer. Eventually that will trigger a flood of desperate refugees to neighboring countries who will put them in ever-growing refugee camps. When Americans start to see these images, they will be appalled.
I'm fairly old, I remember well the mess in Vietnam, and the polling showing Trump's approval on attacking Iran is lower than that is striking. And this morning, Trump is saying Marco Rubio will be in charge of invading Cuba next.
Meanwhile, half a million Americans can't get home from the Middle East.
I wonder if the Trump crew is aware of the short-term duration of the rally around the flag effect that you point out, and they are specifically trying to do these military interventions in ways that are short in duration to generate that kind of boost without the cost? Have their cake and eat it too.
Like the smash and grab in Venezuela (seemingly super illegal) and the previous bombing of Irans nuclear program (wasn't it obliterated? if so, why are we back again?). Neither seemed to help him much with the general public, but neither seemed to hurt him immediately among his base, as we might have guessed when the winner of the FIFA peace prize who promised no more foreign wars starts doing militaristic adventurism all over the globe.
If so, I think Iran might be them biting off more than they can chew. The longer this goes on the more it could threaten a major collapse in support among event he MAGA die hards. Maybe. Folks been predicting that for a long time tho...
Which, I guess it should be said, we should keep in mind the horrors of war and the suffering this is all going to cause us here at home and many abroad, not least of which the people dying under bombardment in the middle east. I'm so angry right now.
Placing these results in the historical context of Vietnam and Iraq/Afghanistan is very helpful. Thanks for going the extra mile to provide us with those numbers.
The "price of gas" will be the Republicans "price of eggs" in the upcoming election.
Clearly, this war that Republicans are not calling a war, but that Trump is calling a war, is unpopular with Americans. So, what did most Republicans (except for Massie and one representative from Ohio) as well as a handful of Democrats in the House do? What did all the Republicans (except for Rand Paul), and with John Fetterman joining them, do? They did not vote to rein in Trump's illegal war.
Catherine Rampell, now at the Bulwark, points out that because we use a lot of petrol biproducts in agriculture and food production, if the war goes on for much longer, it will **also** make eggs more expensive:
"Production of methanol and other chemicals has also been disrupted. Same with fertilizers used to grow the world’s food supply: Roughly 35 percent of global exports of urea (the most common nitrogen fertilizer) and 45 percent of global exports of sulfur (used to produce phosphate fertilizers) traversed the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices are already spiking, and American farmers are freaking out. Consumers may see “higher prices for bread within six to 10 weeks, eggs within a few months and pork and broiler chicken within six months,” according to an estimate from food-system expert Raj Patel."
Paul Krugman also noted the effect on agriculture in his Substack this morning. He also noted wryly that all of this is good for green energy--which of course Trump quashed in the U.S.
I really appreciated discussion of how various polls word their questions, especially conservative polls seeking certain biased results. I live in a red area where people endlessly disparaged Biden online, often over gas prices. I can’t remember seeing gas spike this high.
Next week's polls will be interesting. Because not everybody has had to buy gas yet. for ex, I gassed up Sun b4 prices had a chance to change. When I was running errands Thurs, I noticed that gas was up 20 cents. Why am I having to pay more for gas when the felon told us after the Iran strikes last June that Iran's 3 facilities were 'totally & completely obliterated.'
& the regime using 'Israel was under threat of attack' as justification? Read the room. American support for Israel has taken a beating given how it conducted its response to the Oct 7 attacks.
Iran polls are so low because we've all seen this movie before in Iraq.
Now Trump is taking his victory lap, demanding UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER and also HIS choice of their next leader.
Iran may be divided, but I'm pretty sure 93 million Iranians are united against Trump ruling Iran.
Also we can expect Iran to turn into a humanitarian disaster as food, water, and healthcare become scarcer. Eventually that will trigger a flood of desperate refugees to neighboring countries who will put them in ever-growing refugee camps. When Americans start to see these images, they will be appalled.
I'm fairly old, I remember well the mess in Vietnam, and the polling showing Trump's approval on attacking Iran is lower than that is striking. And this morning, Trump is saying Marco Rubio will be in charge of invading Cuba next.
Meanwhile, half a million Americans can't get home from the Middle East.
What a GIANT CLUSTER OF STUPIDITY.
It's a war.
No, it's not a war.
It's about nuclear weapons.
No, it's about missiles.
We killed the snake.
Yes but you left all the snake's babies.
WE'RE NOW GOING TO INVADE CUBA.
I wonder if the Trump crew is aware of the short-term duration of the rally around the flag effect that you point out, and they are specifically trying to do these military interventions in ways that are short in duration to generate that kind of boost without the cost? Have their cake and eat it too.
Like the smash and grab in Venezuela (seemingly super illegal) and the previous bombing of Irans nuclear program (wasn't it obliterated? if so, why are we back again?). Neither seemed to help him much with the general public, but neither seemed to hurt him immediately among his base, as we might have guessed when the winner of the FIFA peace prize who promised no more foreign wars starts doing militaristic adventurism all over the globe.
If so, I think Iran might be them biting off more than they can chew. The longer this goes on the more it could threaten a major collapse in support among event he MAGA die hards. Maybe. Folks been predicting that for a long time tho...
Which, I guess it should be said, we should keep in mind the horrors of war and the suffering this is all going to cause us here at home and many abroad, not least of which the people dying under bombardment in the middle east. I'm so angry right now.
Placing these results in the historical context of Vietnam and Iraq/Afghanistan is very helpful. Thanks for going the extra mile to provide us with those numbers.
The "price of gas" will be the Republicans "price of eggs" in the upcoming election.
Clearly, this war that Republicans are not calling a war, but that Trump is calling a war, is unpopular with Americans. So, what did most Republicans (except for Massie and one representative from Ohio) as well as a handful of Democrats in the House do? What did all the Republicans (except for Rand Paul), and with John Fetterman joining them, do? They did not vote to rein in Trump's illegal war.
Gasoline went up from 2.34 last week to $2.89 yesterday. Diesel is almost $5 a gallon.
This is in a red state in the middle of oil and gas country.
oil hit $80 per barrel today - just wait until that shows up at the pump.
Re: egg prices
Catherine Rampell, now at the Bulwark, points out that because we use a lot of petrol biproducts in agriculture and food production, if the war goes on for much longer, it will **also** make eggs more expensive:
"Production of methanol and other chemicals has also been disrupted. Same with fertilizers used to grow the world’s food supply: Roughly 35 percent of global exports of urea (the most common nitrogen fertilizer) and 45 percent of global exports of sulfur (used to produce phosphate fertilizers) traversed the Strait of Hormuz. Fertilizer prices are already spiking, and American farmers are freaking out. Consumers may see “higher prices for bread within six to 10 weeks, eggs within a few months and pork and broiler chicken within six months,” according to an estimate from food-system expert Raj Patel."
--https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-iran-warflation-has-just-begun
Paul Krugman also noted the effect on agriculture in his Substack this morning. He also noted wryly that all of this is good for green energy--which of course Trump quashed in the U.S.
I really appreciated discussion of how various polls word their questions, especially conservative polls seeking certain biased results. I live in a red area where people endlessly disparaged Biden online, often over gas prices. I can’t remember seeing gas spike this high.
Next week's polls will be interesting. Because not everybody has had to buy gas yet. for ex, I gassed up Sun b4 prices had a chance to change. When I was running errands Thurs, I noticed that gas was up 20 cents. Why am I having to pay more for gas when the felon told us after the Iran strikes last June that Iran's 3 facilities were 'totally & completely obliterated.'
& the regime using 'Israel was under threat of attack' as justification? Read the room. American support for Israel has taken a beating given how it conducted its response to the Oct 7 attacks.