Six months of Strength In Numbers
An update on the newsletter business and other projects
Hello readers,
This Sunday, I’m skipping the regular data roundup to do something a bit different. I think it’s time to share an update on the business we’re building together here, and for some personal reflections on life post-FiveThirtyEight.
Intro, by way of recap
The big reason I’m writing this now is that, as of last week, it has been exactly six months since ABC News closed 538, forcing me and 15 colleagues onto the sluggish job market for coders and journalists. Frankly, things went poorly for me: I applied to a few dozen tech jobs (AI has really hurt hiring), was headhunted to lead a West Coast data newsroom (they went a different direction — apparently it’s hard to convince people to make a 29-year-old CEO), and a few mainstream newsrooms offered jobs but they were all too slow to hire, not quite right for me, or both.
This quickly led me (back) to Substack. Most of you don’t know this, but I started Strength In Numbers originally in 2017, before I even had my job at The Economist. Then, the site was “The Crosstab,” a polling/forecasting blog and weekly data journalism roundup (and one of the OG Substacks!) that I wrote for fun in my spare time. I had to suspend operations while at ABC, but with my involuntary freedom and need for cash, I saw an opportunity: What if I took that weekly editorial foundation and added fresh polls and regular essays, and wrote about the things I covered in my book? Was there an audience for pro-democracy, data-driven journalism and handicapping from an independent voice?
Evidently, this pitch has resonated with readers. Six months down the line, I’m on the other side of the profound uncertainty the 538 wind-down caused me and my family.
Given all that, I wanted to share my thoughts — and especially my appreciation — with you. I will also share some information about what I’ve been up to beyond Strength In Numbers.
Stable growth and positive financials
First and foremost, I want to extend my heartfelt appreciation to every single reader here at Strength In Numbers. For what we’re trying to do (keep up the empirical revolution in political journalism), every additional reader really makes a difference. And I love hearing from you in the comments and my emails.
When I decided to start this Substack in earnest in March, it was not at all obvious that things were going to work out well, if they did at all. In March, I had just 7,000 total readers here, and Substack estimated that I’d make under $20,000 per year if I turned on paid subscriptions. That would not work for us long-term.
But after some tireless posting through the last six months — and the work of several people behind the scenes to get our polling aggregation infrastructure set up — today, the business is sustainable. Growth is frankly much better than Substack originally projected. Adjusting for a few big jumps in subscriptions when I launched the site in May/June, Strength In Numbers is adding roughly 50 net readers per day:
Additionally, traffic to the average article is already about double what we were seeing for a good piece at 538. By this time next year, I expect Strength In Numbers will be getting the type of hits large media outlets are accustomed to. That’s the power of email newsletters, a personal reader-writer connection, and an engaged niche audience.
But I’m particularly indebted to paid subscribers, who make this work possible. I’m not being dramatic when I say paid readers probably kept me from having to get a job waiting tables this fall — something I did in high school and college (and might pick up again, just to keep social interaction up) — and at least kept us from canceling a few pre-scheduled (cheap) camping trips in Appalachia and Acadia this summer.
Strength In Numbers is generating enough subscription revenue (after Substack and Stripe take 13%, and the government gets another 30-40%) for me to pay my family’s bills again. The newsletter will probably make about $70,000 after taxes and fees this year, which is enough for me to pay myself and sock some cash away in a business account to invest in other members of the team down the road. I’m hoping to say more about that in the coming weeks. (We are moving the parts of this site that are more of a group effort to a new business entity with other monetization strategies available to us — all in the name of safeguarding fast and accurate poll aggregation for cycles to come. Like I said, more info to come.)
Working on my health and fitness again
While I’m making less money than I was at ABC News/Disney (by about half), what I have lost in dollars I have gained multiple times over in health and flexibility.
At 538, I was probably working 60-70 hours in the average week with basically no days off (I was even forced to take a vacation by HR at the end of 2024). Between coding, writing, managing a team of 15 people, and handling demands from broadcast news, there was little time for anything else. This had some noticeable negative impacts on my physical fitness: I developed a painful stress injury in both wrists, gained about 25 pounds as a result of eating poorly and not sleeping or moving, and developed a mild but scary reliance on alcohol to cope with stress (which I’ve since dealt with). And working this much was very detrimental to my mental health and relationships.
Obviously, I wish 538 still existed and all my colleagues had jobs. I would sacrifice aspects of my health and sanity again if it meant my great colleagues had their jobs back. But there’s no great way to explain the relief I feel now. The constant stress and inadequacy you feel when working for a waning corporate behemoth — where headcounts keep shrinking, everybody is scared that something they say might get them fired, and few people really seem to be on your side — is immobilizing. I shouldn’t really go into more detail, but suffice it to say, maintaining one’s mental and physical health in that environment is no small feat.
Now that I’m in control of my schedule, I've regained my energy and health. I’m back to going to the gym every day, and have lost most of the problem weight I gained at ABC. I am no longer scared of developing pre-hypertension (my doctor tells me I worry too much), and I’ve increased my bench press and squat by about 30%. Between trips to my community garden plot (which I was awarded the day after 538 was shut down) and walking my dog, most days I easily hit my personal walking goal of 2 hours or 15,000 steps a day.
Perhaps most importantly, I don’t feel like everyone is constantly out to get me. That’s a true revelation.
Consulting and other projects
Since going to work for Strength In Numbers, I’m much happier and working at a more sustainable pace. I don’t really count my hours, but I’m spending probably about 25-35 hours a week on this newsletter and around 15-20 hours doing paid consulting for survey research and forecasting. (My wife would say I’m spending more time than this, but she doesn’t know I sometimes watch movies during my lunch break. It’ll be our little secret.)
This has been one of the bigger benefits of going independent: Not only do I get to pursue the data-driven political journalism I’m passionate about, I also get to dabble in the social science and statistical work that I am good at and have always been very motivated by. Recently, I have taken on consulting work ranging from studying the impacts of AI on polling, developing weighting schemes for future likely voter surveys, and exploring new techniques of turnout modeling and online data validation. And I’m doing some polling and forecasting for private clients, too. It’s a lot of work, but a lot of fun! (If you want to work together on a related project, feel free to get in touch.)
And finally, I’m finishing the proposal for a second book — a trade publication on electoral reform and polarization post-Trump that I originally pitched in 2024 but didn’t have time for. Now, I can set aside hours a day to noodle on chapter layouts and chart ideas (lots and lots of chart ideas!) as part of my daily workload.
Freedom
Of course, there are costs to not having a cushy network media job (among others, my wife and I have stopped using Uber Eats), and loneliness can wear on me. Many days, I have trouble motivating myself to get out of bed and commute to the small corner of my basement I’ve reserved for business.
But the freedom to pursue meaningful work wherever my curiosity takes me is a reward unto itself. And I cannot ignore the role accountability journalism plays in American politics right now: These are dire times for democracy, and being able to say that without getting called into a meeting with corporate PR is a load off my chest. To state the obvious, political journalism would be nowhere without free and fair elections — and I’m glad to be able to be publicly on the right side of this issue.
In one word, were I to describe where I am now relative to where I was six months ago, it would be this: Freedom. Freedom to write what matters, say what I want, work with whomever I want, post where and what I want, campaign for what’s right, and pursue neglected goals and hobbies.
Thank you
And all of this work is only possible thanks to you, the readers of Strength In Numbers. Subscription revenue provides a stable foundation upon which I can rebuild a career as an author, data-driven journalist, forecaster, and pollster. And I figure if we can make this work in the worst part of the election cycle (the Spring right after a presidential election!), things will only continue to get brighter from here.
And I truly think we are building something special here. SIN was an early mover in polling on Substack, has gotten several stories of the early Trump administration correct (especially on latent opinion about immigration, and on Trump’s slide into deep unpopularity), and is a growing community for work from other independent analysts and journalists. I just think what we’re doing is very cool and special, and I’m happy we get to do this together.
So from the deepest part of my heart: thank you. I feel extremely blessed to have a community of readers interested in building a new future for data-driven journalism with me. While I started this journey out of necessity, there’s nothing else I’d rather be doing.
Elliott
bonus image… The Crosstab in its heyday.
It’s incredibly generous of you to share this story. I’ve gone (still going through) a similar transition, and to read yours gave me hope. Your hard work is definitely growing something strong, and freedom is indeed precious.
I'm glad to be a new paying subscriber. Like so many others, I turned off the TV and get my daily dose of insights by reading my trusted SubStack experts every morning. When Jess Craven at CWCW gave you a shout out I signed up immediately.