The Senators who beat expectations; + a FAQ about WAR/WARP
Our estimate of the Wins Above Replacement for U.S. Senators as of 2024
Today, Strength in Numbers is releasing our 2024 Senate estimates for Wins Above Replacement (WAR) and Wins Above Replacement in terms of Probability (WARP). We use the same open-source model that was used to generate our 2024 House WAR/P estimates. We won’t re-hash the methodology here, but as a quick refresher:
WAR is a measure of how much better or worse a candidate for office performs, in terms of vote margin, compared to a hypothetical “replacement-level” candidate from the same party, for the same seat.
WARP measures how much a candidate changes their party’s probability of winning a seat, relative to that same hypothetical alternative.
The full Senate results are listed below, along with the House results for the convenience of having all our WAR/P estimates in one location. Additionally, we’ve appended this article with answers to common questions that were asked after we released the house results.
Senate WAR/P
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