I'm scarred by Beto's loss in 2018. I've read that there are more registered Democrats in Texas than there are Republicans. Its Republican heavy congressional delegation stems from gerrymandering. But there is ONE ITEM THAT IS A 100% SURE THING: When your progeny arrives on the scene you will learn the WISDOM of the axiom, "Sleep when the baby sleeps." So if Junior is up all night you can at least try to type quietly while rocking his bassinet with one foot! Afternoon siestas are perfectly acceptable.
I know you’re nesting and all, but I was hoping to get your take on the GA primary. Across the country, Trump still seems to have an incredibly strong influence on the Trumplican Party. After failing to get rid of Raffensperger as Secretary of State in 2022, he seems to be batting 1.000 again in primarying whoever displeases him. Any insights from turnout regarding general election predictions? GA allows you to vote in whichever primary you want. In 22, very few Democratic races were contested. It was an easy choice to save Raffensperger that year. This year, there were too many contested races to justify that kind of switch. That may be why we saw such a clearly Trump driven result on the Trumplican side of the ballot.
I agree with your assessment of the polls, but I am concerned that there are 160 days until the election and even 144 days until early voting starts. As always, mobilization is the key. If Democrats at the neighborhood and precinct level can give potential voters a reason to vote and Paxton's record provides a reason for partisan leaners and independents to vote against him, then Democrats can win. Can potential voters be turned out? I hope so, but it won't be easy!
People were much happier about the economy in 2018 too, and that feeling was more broad-based than now. Though that may be folded into other numbers and statistics you use.
I understand your reluctance to seem over-optimistic, but really, based on the poll data you've presented, wouldn't you have to give a slight edge to Talarico?
My take is somewhere between like and love. The implications even go beyond this critical Senate seat. If Texas tends toward being a swing state, even the Electoral College would be upended
Sorry, but I think what your argument shows is that a Dem will lose only narrowly in TX in very good Dem years, a la O’Rourke in 2018. I think the GOP is going to have to throw a ton of $$ at what should be a safe seat for them, and that’s helpful, but I’m betting Paxton pulls out a narrow victory. He will be a truly appalling senator, and will spend most of his time there trying to position himself as Trump’s successor.
Texas's population is significantly younger and more diverse in 2026 than it was in 2018. There are larger populations of Hispanics and Asian-Americans now. By far the largest source of domestic migrants to Texas is California--most of whom are definitely voting Democrat. Other states with large populations moving to Texas are Florida (purple), New York (blue) and Illinois (blue).
Eight years can be a long time in national politics.
Virginia changed from safe red to safe blue between (say) 2004 and 2012.
West Virginia changed from safe blue to safe red between (say) 1996 and 2004.
1) What percentage of eligible Hispanics voted in 2024 in Texas and what percentage does the data indicate most probably will vote in November?
2) What was the percentage of the Black vote in Texas in 2024 and what percentage of Black voters does the data indicate most probably will vote in November considering the overall motivation of Black voters all across the South?
I'm scarred by Beto's loss in 2018. I've read that there are more registered Democrats in Texas than there are Republicans. Its Republican heavy congressional delegation stems from gerrymandering. But there is ONE ITEM THAT IS A 100% SURE THING: When your progeny arrives on the scene you will learn the WISDOM of the axiom, "Sleep when the baby sleeps." So if Junior is up all night you can at least try to type quietly while rocking his bassinet with one foot! Afternoon siestas are perfectly acceptable.
I know you’re nesting and all, but I was hoping to get your take on the GA primary. Across the country, Trump still seems to have an incredibly strong influence on the Trumplican Party. After failing to get rid of Raffensperger as Secretary of State in 2022, he seems to be batting 1.000 again in primarying whoever displeases him. Any insights from turnout regarding general election predictions? GA allows you to vote in whichever primary you want. In 22, very few Democratic races were contested. It was an easy choice to save Raffensperger that year. This year, there were too many contested races to justify that kind of switch. That may be why we saw such a clearly Trump driven result on the Trumplican side of the ballot.
I agree with your assessment of the polls, but I am concerned that there are 160 days until the election and even 144 days until early voting starts. As always, mobilization is the key. If Democrats at the neighborhood and precinct level can give potential voters a reason to vote and Paxton's record provides a reason for partisan leaners and independents to vote against him, then Democrats can win. Can potential voters be turned out? I hope so, but it won't be easy!
People were much happier about the economy in 2018 too, and that feeling was more broad-based than now. Though that may be folded into other numbers and statistics you use.
I understand your reluctance to seem over-optimistic, but really, based on the poll data you've presented, wouldn't you have to give a slight edge to Talarico?
I *love* being "messed up with facts" when they're this encouraging. Thanks especially for the reminder of how close Beto came in 2018.
My take is somewhere between like and love. The implications even go beyond this critical Senate seat. If Texas tends toward being a swing state, even the Electoral College would be upended
Imagine that!
Sorry, but I think what your argument shows is that a Dem will lose only narrowly in TX in very good Dem years, a la O’Rourke in 2018. I think the GOP is going to have to throw a ton of $$ at what should be a safe seat for them, and that’s helpful, but I’m betting Paxton pulls out a narrow victory. He will be a truly appalling senator, and will spend most of his time there trying to position himself as Trump’s successor.
Texas's population is significantly younger and more diverse in 2026 than it was in 2018. There are larger populations of Hispanics and Asian-Americans now. By far the largest source of domestic migrants to Texas is California--most of whom are definitely voting Democrat. Other states with large populations moving to Texas are Florida (purple), New York (blue) and Illinois (blue).
Eight years can be a long time in national politics.
Virginia changed from safe red to safe blue between (say) 2004 and 2012.
West Virginia changed from safe blue to safe red between (say) 1996 and 2004.
1) What percentage of eligible Hispanics voted in 2024 in Texas and what percentage does the data indicate most probably will vote in November?
2) What was the percentage of the Black vote in Texas in 2024 and what percentage of Black voters does the data indicate most probably will vote in November considering the overall motivation of Black voters all across the South?
Many thanks
Why hasn’tElliott responded?
I’m glad you decided to weigh in tonight, and I’m glad Texas gets to claim you! You’ll let us know when the little one arrives, won’t you?
"I'll go boldly out on a limb and say it's a toss up. " You are definitely being you!
Ha! Well, when Cook is at Lean Republican, that is being quite bold!
But figure into it that the voters will have six more months to get angrier at Trump…