What do you think is Trumps best chance to change the narrative to improve his reelection odds between now and election day? Do you think you will see vulnerable Republicans abandon Trump as the election gets closer if his standings in the polls doesn't improve? - Great Article!!!!
Todd: Not really. The point of a poll is to tell you how people will vote IF they vote. There's no way that we can take into account whether or not that vote gets counted once they actually do. And from the forecasting perspective, I and others talked a bit about this before. It's the difference between forecasting vote intentions and vote counts. Polls only let us do the former. (Models can help us do the latter, but it's hard to specify them empirically.)
Wait - why should I be impressed with 0.15% drop in support? How does this translate into numbers of votes in specified states?
What do you think is Trumps best chance to change the narrative to improve his reelection odds between now and election day? Do you think you will see vulnerable Republicans abandon Trump as the election gets closer if his standings in the polls doesn't improve? - Great Article!!!!
I second the question about Republicans abandoning him.
Todd: Not really. The point of a poll is to tell you how people will vote IF they vote. There's no way that we can take into account whether or not that vote gets counted once they actually do. And from the forecasting perspective, I and others talked a bit about this before. It's the difference between forecasting vote intentions and vote counts. Polls only let us do the former. (Models can help us do the latter, but it's hard to specify them empirically.)