New data on protest activity shows organized anti-Trump actions are 4x the size they were in the president's first term. Your weekly political data roundup for February 15, 2026.
The issue with Trump is that he has a cult of seal clappers who support him no matter what, and in America elections are close and turnout is low, especially in primaries.
Another thing to consider is that Trump is, in theory, bad on many Republican issues. He was pro-choice in the primaries and said he would veto a national abortion ban. He was pro-LGBT in 2016, even saying he supported bathroom rights. He is bad on guns — his bump stock ban is the most gun control of the 21st century; it was confiscation without compensation, had no grandfathering, and was pure executive action. His tariffs represent one of the largest tax increases in American history. His personal character is also widely criticized.
So why is he so strong?
The reason is simple: the issues he is seen as being good on are weighted higher, specifically immigration. This is the issue for the right — an existential one. You can undo many other policies later, but immigration is seen as permanent. The other factor is that many voters want a meaner, more confrontational figure — a fighter — and they disliked the “may the better man win” attitude of McCain and Romney.
Does the 3.7% above achieve the Chenowith threshold for political movements (that have only failed twice) in the last 100 years to remove the offending government/king? The number I have read was 3.5%.
The good news is Trump is losing with the economy and trade. Inflation or stagflation is here I believe it will take many years for the economy to recover. Governor in my state has worked in a bi partisan manner, to reduce the cost of groceries. Gas is a little down, by price, not much though. The Biden had a good plan for the EPA and this reduced the price of gasoline at the pump.
Regarding the NYT article on the GOP's $550 million funding advantage, as I recall in Adam Bonica's Substack article "Money Doesn't Buy Elections, It Does Something Worse" he concludes that political advertising, and TV ads (by far the most expensive method) in particular, move the needle hardly at all to shift votes. Yet, in the recent NJ primary, an AIPAC funded smear campaign against one of the Democratic candidates was widely credited with causing him to lose to the eventual winning candidate (who spent very little herself). Has anyone gathered any data on this particular NJ race to confirm this or is it simply anecdotal? Could political advertising spending be more impactful in primaries than general elections? Is the GOP's funding advantage a red herring? Bonica's conclusion is that "advertising has remarkably limited persuasive effect. Instead [mega-donors'] leverage [over politicians] comes from convincing politicians that they need mega-donor money to win. Politicians become dependent on the wealthy not because the money actually delivers votes, but because they believe it does." Does the NJ example belie that conclusion and if so how can we tell for sure?
Thank you Mr. Morris. You've probably covered this, but could you provide a link to the survey questions that are used to classify voters as "low information" and what the scoring buckets are?
The fight for America's future must include a long term battle to identify foundational problems and promote beneficial solutions. I am fighting for America via an online “third path” to a better societal future at EthicalGovtNow.org. I urge all liberal thinkers to visit today, evaluate our path and join our patriotic movement.
People are starting to come to their senses, but I'm not convinced it's enough to make the difference that we need. Die-hard Republicans, especially MAGA, will not suddenly become progressives and liberals, or even moderate Democrats, despite how awful things are thanks to their party. They may express dislike for Trump as many have in the past, but they'll continue to vote Republican at the local and state levels, which may be even worse. In a presidential election, most of them will sit it out, rather than vote for a Democrat.
While I really appreciate the thoughtful analysis, I am a bit surprised that, when thinking about the last/next presidential election and young make voters, why misogyny is not discussed? Especially for low-info (don't base their politics on political information) young male voters - seems quite a significant missing (possibly because young male low info voters are wary of being authentic about it - similar to the way racism is ignored in low info older white voters)
I read an article yesterday about the White House being flooded with Texas businessmen pleading with Trump to calm down on the ICE raids on working people.
This happened directly AFTER that seat in Tarrant County, Texas went to a Democrat.
Excellent review of last week Elliott. What is very frightening is his demand for passage of the save stuff in the Senate and his projected ban against all mail voting! Shameful that virtually all Rs in Congress are willing and able to destroy our Democracy! Will Thune hold the fort? Please address all of this and popular opinion among Republicans might join us in the battle of battles since the Civil War?
Trump can't ban mail in voting, that's decided by the states and Congress.
When you hear MAGA talking about it, remind them that all overseas active military use mail in ballots, typically one of Republicans' strongest supporters.
If they want to stick a knife in the back of the military, more than they already have, go for it, boys.
The more we understand Trump and Trumpism the more we realize he's reignited a class war in America. He's on a mission to turn America into an exclusive low tax mecca for the rich, privileged and entitled. All above the law while America's workers toil away to keep our society going; reminiscent of the 18th-19th century's plantation and industrial systems.
The GOOD news is that America is increasingly on to him and the GOP. Trump/MAGA is down 14% in its average approval ratings since Trump's inauguration. That equals 12,000,000 votes out of the 77,000,000 who mistakenly voted for the lying fascist rich boy and are now expressing remorse.
And in case you haven't heard, Trump's drop in popularity is who's fault? Biden if course. Why? Biden let 11 million illegal, criminals into the US forcing Trump to use harsh methods to build a police state to get them deported.
Funny how the GOP Budget numbers work. The $110 Billion the Trump/GOP has devoted to his ICE Gestapo secret police and prison camps is the amount of $s Americans need to refund our ACA healthcare subsidies.
The Constitution is coming for MAGA The people will win in Nov.
One hopes you're right. But the Trumpistas must hate their children and grandchildren as they prefer to line their own pockets now over preserving a livable planet for the next generations.
Any sense what percent of protest attendees live in swing states and did not vote for Harris in 2024? (anecdotal but I attended both the Women's March in 2017 and No Kings recently and attendance here in Boston was maybe 1/2 that of 2017).
In October, Chenoweth wrote, “In a new analysis, we find that protest events now occur across a wider range of U.S. counties than we have observed since January 2017. The share of counties hosting at least one anti-Trump protest has risen markedly during his second term, surpassing the historic spikes observed during his first term. And the current protest movement has already reached deeper into Trump country than at almost any point during the first Trump administration.” The whole article is worth reading.
Let's keep up the organizing and protests! We have more power than we think and we are so much stronger together.
The issue with Trump is that he has a cult of seal clappers who support him no matter what, and in America elections are close and turnout is low, especially in primaries.
Another thing to consider is that Trump is, in theory, bad on many Republican issues. He was pro-choice in the primaries and said he would veto a national abortion ban. He was pro-LGBT in 2016, even saying he supported bathroom rights. He is bad on guns — his bump stock ban is the most gun control of the 21st century; it was confiscation without compensation, had no grandfathering, and was pure executive action. His tariffs represent one of the largest tax increases in American history. His personal character is also widely criticized.
So why is he so strong?
The reason is simple: the issues he is seen as being good on are weighted higher, specifically immigration. This is the issue for the right — an existential one. You can undo many other policies later, but immigration is seen as permanent. The other factor is that many voters want a meaner, more confrontational figure — a fighter — and they disliked the “may the better man win” attitude of McCain and Romney.
Does the 3.7% above achieve the Chenowith threshold for political movements (that have only failed twice) in the last 100 years to remove the offending government/king? The number I have read was 3.5%.
The good news is Trump is losing with the economy and trade. Inflation or stagflation is here I believe it will take many years for the economy to recover. Governor in my state has worked in a bi partisan manner, to reduce the cost of groceries. Gas is a little down, by price, not much though. The Biden had a good plan for the EPA and this reduced the price of gasoline at the pump.
Regarding the NYT article on the GOP's $550 million funding advantage, as I recall in Adam Bonica's Substack article "Money Doesn't Buy Elections, It Does Something Worse" he concludes that political advertising, and TV ads (by far the most expensive method) in particular, move the needle hardly at all to shift votes. Yet, in the recent NJ primary, an AIPAC funded smear campaign against one of the Democratic candidates was widely credited with causing him to lose to the eventual winning candidate (who spent very little herself). Has anyone gathered any data on this particular NJ race to confirm this or is it simply anecdotal? Could political advertising spending be more impactful in primaries than general elections? Is the GOP's funding advantage a red herring? Bonica's conclusion is that "advertising has remarkably limited persuasive effect. Instead [mega-donors'] leverage [over politicians] comes from convincing politicians that they need mega-donor money to win. Politicians become dependent on the wealthy not because the money actually delivers votes, but because they believe it does." Does the NJ example belie that conclusion and if so how can we tell for sure?
Thank you Mr. Morris. You've probably covered this, but could you provide a link to the survey questions that are used to classify voters as "low information" and what the scoring buckets are?
The fight for America's future must include a long term battle to identify foundational problems and promote beneficial solutions. I am fighting for America via an online “third path” to a better societal future at EthicalGovtNow.org. I urge all liberal thinkers to visit today, evaluate our path and join our patriotic movement.
Summing numbers of protesters is misleading, because the same person can be counted multiple times.
People are starting to come to their senses, but I'm not convinced it's enough to make the difference that we need. Die-hard Republicans, especially MAGA, will not suddenly become progressives and liberals, or even moderate Democrats, despite how awful things are thanks to their party. They may express dislike for Trump as many have in the past, but they'll continue to vote Republican at the local and state levels, which may be even worse. In a presidential election, most of them will sit it out, rather than vote for a Democrat.
While I really appreciate the thoughtful analysis, I am a bit surprised that, when thinking about the last/next presidential election and young make voters, why misogyny is not discussed? Especially for low-info (don't base their politics on political information) young male voters - seems quite a significant missing (possibly because young male low info voters are wary of being authentic about it - similar to the way racism is ignored in low info older white voters)
I read an article yesterday about the White House being flooded with Texas businessmen pleading with Trump to calm down on the ICE raids on working people.
This happened directly AFTER that seat in Tarrant County, Texas went to a Democrat.
Republicans are very worried.
Great news, GEM!!
Excellent review of last week Elliott. What is very frightening is his demand for passage of the save stuff in the Senate and his projected ban against all mail voting! Shameful that virtually all Rs in Congress are willing and able to destroy our Democracy! Will Thune hold the fort? Please address all of this and popular opinion among Republicans might join us in the battle of battles since the Civil War?
Trump can't ban mail in voting, that's decided by the states and Congress.
When you hear MAGA talking about it, remind them that all overseas active military use mail in ballots, typically one of Republicans' strongest supporters.
If they want to stick a knife in the back of the military, more than they already have, go for it, boys.
The more we understand Trump and Trumpism the more we realize he's reignited a class war in America. He's on a mission to turn America into an exclusive low tax mecca for the rich, privileged and entitled. All above the law while America's workers toil away to keep our society going; reminiscent of the 18th-19th century's plantation and industrial systems.
The GOOD news is that America is increasingly on to him and the GOP. Trump/MAGA is down 14% in its average approval ratings since Trump's inauguration. That equals 12,000,000 votes out of the 77,000,000 who mistakenly voted for the lying fascist rich boy and are now expressing remorse.
And in case you haven't heard, Trump's drop in popularity is who's fault? Biden if course. Why? Biden let 11 million illegal, criminals into the US forcing Trump to use harsh methods to build a police state to get them deported.
Funny how the GOP Budget numbers work. The $110 Billion the Trump/GOP has devoted to his ICE Gestapo secret police and prison camps is the amount of $s Americans need to refund our ACA healthcare subsidies.
The Constitution is coming for MAGA The people will win in Nov.
One hopes you're right. But the Trumpistas must hate their children and grandchildren as they prefer to line their own pockets now over preserving a livable planet for the next generations.
I agree.
Any sense what percent of protest attendees live in swing states and did not vote for Harris in 2024? (anecdotal but I attended both the Women's March in 2017 and No Kings recently and attendance here in Boston was maybe 1/2 that of 2017).
In October, Chenoweth wrote, “In a new analysis, we find that protest events now occur across a wider range of U.S. counties than we have observed since January 2017. The share of counties hosting at least one anti-Trump protest has risen markedly during his second term, surpassing the historic spikes observed during his first term. And the current protest movement has already reached deeper into Trump country than at almost any point during the first Trump administration.” The whole article is worth reading.
https://wagingnonviolence.org/2025/10/resistance-reaches-into-trump-counties/