1) It appears to me that Trump's overall approval is hovering around the same levels it was at this point in his first term (low 40s). If it stays there despite his continued assaults on democratic norms and inability to solve economic anxieties over affordability, are we looking at a midterms outcome very similar to 2018, where Dems make big gains in the House but no progress in the Senate? Also, was his approval ahead of the 2020 election really significantly above where it is now (I recall him being in the low 40s then as well, and we still had a razor-thin election and not the repudiation many of us were counting on)?
2) What would it take for Trump's approval to fall below the floor of high 30s/low 40s we've seen throughout his two terms and result in the overwhelming repudiation of him and MAGA that we've been waiting for since 2017? Would it need to be a full-blown recession or economic crisis, since it seems that no matter how many laws he breaks or innocent people he kills with his ICE goon squads registers, his base sticks with him, and lots of others just don't care? I'm starting to believe that he could indeed execute someone in broad daylight and his approval still wouldn't dip much below where it is now.
3) Is it possible for a president's approval to truly crater to Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter levels (in the 20s) absent a full-blown economic crisis? I suppose it could happen if he got us entangled in another foreign war with boots on the ground and heavy casualties, but I'm not sure that would even do it. It seems to me the only way to break through this current cycle of gridlock and growing political fascism is for a Great Depression-like crisis to unfold that would bring about a major political realignment and finally rid us of the scourge of MAGA.
I notice on Bluesky that as of yesterday, people in Tennessee had not seen the video of Alex's murder. They had only seen the government presser. It would seen significant to do a poll question "Have you seen this video?"
Thank you for this and for all of your work. Just wanted to check one thing: unless I'm misreading the chart, it looks like strong disapproval of ICE was at 48% and *total* disapprove was at 57%?
Striking how high the strong disapproval numbers were among independents.
I wonder: if sentiment on the economy can be at least partly understood in terms of de-aligned voters punishing the party in power, does immigration/civil liberties have the potential to drive more of a re-alignment or at least negative polarization against Trumpism?
"a good reminder to not interpret elections as mono-causal events" -- truer words have not been spoke! We live in a multicausal world. When we attempt to reduce causes to a single factor in a linear model, we lose the plot.
Your point about young people not trusting the system is really interesting and brought a question to mind for me. How sustainable for any party is a strategy of going after groups like this? I feel like that’s the lesson a lot of politicians took away from 2024, but is that really a good long-term way to gain power and advance an agenda or is that going to lead to years of trading elections?
I was interested in Elliott’s slight critique of the way NYT tends to adhere to the line that voters are almost entirely focused on the economy to the exclusion of other issues, even when their own data seems open to other conclusions. I’ve wondered about that before now.
I've got two questions. The first is "How many of those polled have any idea what 'the economy' is and what affects it?" The second is "To what extent is 'immigration' a polite way to say 'white supremacy'?" Most of them don't seem to have a clue how Reaganomics and what followed gutted the middle and working classes and gave free rein to corporations and the ultra-wealthy. Which the Supreme Court sealed with a kiss in the Citizens United decision. It's easy to "immigration" and "white supremacy" to soundbites and dog whistles. "The economy"? Not so much.
Turns out that most readers won't follow/aren't interested in a three or more factor weighted argument. Certainly headlines represent the pretense that a few words can capture a complicated issue.
Chicago Indivisible has called a rally for Sunday at 1 pm at Wells and Michigan. They say,
Today, we witnessed yet another murder by ICE and Border Patrol. This was the latest in escalating violence that has led to - first the murders of Silverio Villegas González, Keith Porter and Renee Nicole Macklin Good - and now the murder of Alex Pretti. All because the community is standing up to the kidnapping of our neighbors off the street by the Trump regime. All because we won’t stand idly by and allow our country to devolve into tyranny. Join Indivisible Chicago as we take to the streets and demand ICE OUT OF EVERYWHERE and an end to the fascist ICE and CBP violence.
CHICAGO: EMERGENCY RESPONSE TO DHS EXECUTION IN MINNEAPOLIS
Indivisible Chicago is supporting the emergency protest that has been called for by CATA (The Coalition Against the Trump Agenda) and CAARPR (Chicago Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression Coalition) in response to the latest murder by ICE and Border Patrol.
We must put an end to the racial profiling, violence, abductions and intentional cruelty that we witnessed in Chicago during the Fall and are seeing at an even greater scale in Minneapolis now. We demand that ICE and CBP get out of ALL communities. We must put a stop to the unconstitutional actions of a wanna-be-king and his regime.
WHEN: Sunday Jan 25 @ 1PM
WHERE: Ida B Wells & Michigan Ave, Chicago
Follow on Instagram
The actions by ICE and CBP first in Chicago and now in Minneapolis are all part of the plan of theTrump regime to create violence and terror in cities across America. We believe that we are reaching a pivotal time and our response matters more now than ever.
No Funding for ICE and CBP
One immediate thing we can do is demand that the Senate refuse to fund ICE.
The House passed an appropriations bill to fund ICE through September 30 by a vote of 220-207. The bill would increase funding to ICE and CBP and give them the ability to expand their war against cities like Chicago and Minneapolis with no accountability. Seven Democrats voted Yes. The bill will now head to the Senate with a vote expected Wednesday. It will require Democratic votes to make the 60 vote threshold to pass, so it’s critical for Dems to be united.
👉 Tell your senators to rein in ICE right now. Congress has to pass the appropriations bill by January 30 to keep the Department of Homeland Security funded, which means Dems have leverage to include provisions that rein in ICE and freeze its budget. Call Senators Durbin and Duckworth and demand that they oppose the House Bill and use their leverage to protect our communities from ICE. Senator Duckworth has announced her opposition to the bill yet that could change so please keep calling her office. (More info here)
Prepare for Further Action
In addition to the violence of ICE and CBP – Trump has threatened to take the further step of sending active duty military troops to support his attacks against our cities by invoking the Insurrection Act. This terror - of which Trump has recently written - is an excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and bring the military to bear on Minneapolis. Once Trump takes this next step, there’s little to stop him from doing the same in Chicago and across America.
That’s why it’s essential we respond immediately and powerfully should Trump invoke the Insurrection Act. If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act we will plan with our partners an immediate response. We are asking that you be prepared for this; we will send an email to this address calling for a rapid response rally and march. Also, we know we must do more to prepare for the return of CBP to Chicago. How powerfully we are able to respond depends on you. Please forward this email to a friend who is ready to take action and ask them to join us at Indivisible Chicago and then join us in the streets.
Pundits - and Democrats - have been misreading Trump's approval on "immigration" because they conflate border security (slight approval) with interior deportations (large and growing disapproval).
Our national discourse would be much more accurate if those two aspects of "immigration" were separated - as you do consistently.
A few thoughts:
1) It appears to me that Trump's overall approval is hovering around the same levels it was at this point in his first term (low 40s). If it stays there despite his continued assaults on democratic norms and inability to solve economic anxieties over affordability, are we looking at a midterms outcome very similar to 2018, where Dems make big gains in the House but no progress in the Senate? Also, was his approval ahead of the 2020 election really significantly above where it is now (I recall him being in the low 40s then as well, and we still had a razor-thin election and not the repudiation many of us were counting on)?
2) What would it take for Trump's approval to fall below the floor of high 30s/low 40s we've seen throughout his two terms and result in the overwhelming repudiation of him and MAGA that we've been waiting for since 2017? Would it need to be a full-blown recession or economic crisis, since it seems that no matter how many laws he breaks or innocent people he kills with his ICE goon squads registers, his base sticks with him, and lots of others just don't care? I'm starting to believe that he could indeed execute someone in broad daylight and his approval still wouldn't dip much below where it is now.
3) Is it possible for a president's approval to truly crater to Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter levels (in the 20s) absent a full-blown economic crisis? I suppose it could happen if he got us entangled in another foreign war with boots on the ground and heavy casualties, but I'm not sure that would even do it. It seems to me the only way to break through this current cycle of gridlock and growing political fascism is for a Great Depression-like crisis to unfold that would bring about a major political realignment and finally rid us of the scourge of MAGA.
I notice on Bluesky that as of yesterday, people in Tennessee had not seen the video of Alex's murder. They had only seen the government presser. It would seen significant to do a poll question "Have you seen this video?"
Thank you for this and for all of your work. Just wanted to check one thing: unless I'm misreading the chart, it looks like strong disapproval of ICE was at 48% and *total* disapprove was at 57%?
Striking how high the strong disapproval numbers were among independents.
I wonder: if sentiment on the economy can be at least partly understood in terms of de-aligned voters punishing the party in power, does immigration/civil liberties have the potential to drive more of a re-alignment or at least negative polarization against Trumpism?
"a good reminder to not interpret elections as mono-causal events" -- truer words have not been spoke! We live in a multicausal world. When we attempt to reduce causes to a single factor in a linear model, we lose the plot.
Your point about young people not trusting the system is really interesting and brought a question to mind for me. How sustainable for any party is a strategy of going after groups like this? I feel like that’s the lesson a lot of politicians took away from 2024, but is that really a good long-term way to gain power and advance an agenda or is that going to lead to years of trading elections?
34% who strongly support ICE is the build in, immovable base, that will always vote for any candidate, NAZI or otherwise who has a R after their name.
Aka the "white right"
I was interested in Elliott’s slight critique of the way NYT tends to adhere to the line that voters are almost entirely focused on the economy to the exclusion of other issues, even when their own data seems open to other conclusions. I’ve wondered about that before now.
I've got two questions. The first is "How many of those polled have any idea what 'the economy' is and what affects it?" The second is "To what extent is 'immigration' a polite way to say 'white supremacy'?" Most of them don't seem to have a clue how Reaganomics and what followed gutted the middle and working classes and gave free rein to corporations and the ultra-wealthy. Which the Supreme Court sealed with a kiss in the Citizens United decision. It's easy to "immigration" and "white supremacy" to soundbites and dog whistles. "The economy"? Not so much.
Turns out that most readers won't follow/aren't interested in a three or more factor weighted argument. Certainly headlines represent the pretense that a few words can capture a complicated issue.
Chicagoans stand with Minnesota. If you cannot go to the rally listed below here's how you can help. https://www.standwithminnesota.com
Chicago Indivisible has called a rally for Sunday at 1 pm at Wells and Michigan. They say,
Today, we witnessed yet another murder by ICE and Border Patrol. This was the latest in escalating violence that has led to - first the murders of Silverio Villegas González, Keith Porter and Renee Nicole Macklin Good - and now the murder of Alex Pretti. All because the community is standing up to the kidnapping of our neighbors off the street by the Trump regime. All because we won’t stand idly by and allow our country to devolve into tyranny. Join Indivisible Chicago as we take to the streets and demand ICE OUT OF EVERYWHERE and an end to the fascist ICE and CBP violence.
CHICAGO: EMERGENCY RESPONSE TO DHS EXECUTION IN MINNEAPOLIS
Indivisible Chicago is supporting the emergency protest that has been called for by CATA (The Coalition Against the Trump Agenda) and CAARPR (Chicago Alliance Against Racist and Political Repression Coalition) in response to the latest murder by ICE and Border Patrol.
We must put an end to the racial profiling, violence, abductions and intentional cruelty that we witnessed in Chicago during the Fall and are seeing at an even greater scale in Minneapolis now. We demand that ICE and CBP get out of ALL communities. We must put a stop to the unconstitutional actions of a wanna-be-king and his regime.
WHEN: Sunday Jan 25 @ 1PM
WHERE: Ida B Wells & Michigan Ave, Chicago
Follow on Instagram
The actions by ICE and CBP first in Chicago and now in Minneapolis are all part of the plan of theTrump regime to create violence and terror in cities across America. We believe that we are reaching a pivotal time and our response matters more now than ever.
No Funding for ICE and CBP
One immediate thing we can do is demand that the Senate refuse to fund ICE.
The House passed an appropriations bill to fund ICE through September 30 by a vote of 220-207. The bill would increase funding to ICE and CBP and give them the ability to expand their war against cities like Chicago and Minneapolis with no accountability. Seven Democrats voted Yes. The bill will now head to the Senate with a vote expected Wednesday. It will require Democratic votes to make the 60 vote threshold to pass, so it’s critical for Dems to be united.
👉 Tell your senators to rein in ICE right now. Congress has to pass the appropriations bill by January 30 to keep the Department of Homeland Security funded, which means Dems have leverage to include provisions that rein in ICE and freeze its budget. Call Senators Durbin and Duckworth and demand that they oppose the House Bill and use their leverage to protect our communities from ICE. Senator Duckworth has announced her opposition to the bill yet that could change so please keep calling her office. (More info here)
Prepare for Further Action
In addition to the violence of ICE and CBP – Trump has threatened to take the further step of sending active duty military troops to support his attacks against our cities by invoking the Insurrection Act. This terror - of which Trump has recently written - is an excuse to invoke the Insurrection Act and bring the military to bear on Minneapolis. Once Trump takes this next step, there’s little to stop him from doing the same in Chicago and across America.
That’s why it’s essential we respond immediately and powerfully should Trump invoke the Insurrection Act. If Trump invokes the Insurrection Act we will plan with our partners an immediate response. We are asking that you be prepared for this; we will send an email to this address calling for a rapid response rally and march. Also, we know we must do more to prepare for the return of CBP to Chicago. How powerfully we are able to respond depends on you. Please forward this email to a friend who is ready to take action and ask them to join us at Indivisible Chicago and then join us in the streets.
If you cannot go to the rally here are ways you can help. https://www.standwithminnesota.com
I don’t know how to read this. Is,the generic gap 4.5 points or,8 points
Pundits - and Democrats - have been misreading Trump's approval on "immigration" because they conflate border security (slight approval) with interior deportations (large and growing disapproval).
Our national discourse would be much more accurate if those two aspects of "immigration" were separated - as you do consistently.