New Abolish ICE polling and the end of the Trump “realignment”

Your weekly political data roundup for January 25, 2026.

Jan 25, 2026

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Dear readers,

This is my weekly roundup of new political data published over the last seven days.

This week brought a new New York Times/Siena University poll with numbers that confirm what Strength In Numbers has been reporting since early 2025: Trump’s 2024 coalition has come undone. Young voters, non-white voters, and low-turnout voters who swung to Trump from 2020 to 2024 have swung back against him in force. In many cases, these groups are even more anti-Trump now than they were ahead of the 2020 election.

On deck this week: Tuesday’s Deep Dive will examine results of two political knowledge questions from this month’s poll, and Friday’s Chart of the Week will react to the news of the week (or, some other projects depending, look at how Americans in competitive Senate and congressional seats feel about Trump’s deportations).

I will also be keeping an eye out for new polling on ICE/immigration enforcement/deportations after federal agents shot and killed a second person, Alex Pretti,

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