Why MAGA is not a durable majority. Plus, consumer sentiment, and a study on the effects of raising the minimum wage in red states. Your weekly political data roundup for April 19, 2026.
Hmm. With respect to both the Senate Speculator and the overall polling, I'm hearing that Democrats are getting beaten like a gong in social media, and that this sphere is not being seen or accounted in polling. Robert Reich posted that "A recent study found that of the 100 largest political YouTube channels, 64 of them are conservative. Add it all up, and the right-wing channels have a cumulative subscriber base of 248.6 million, versus 149.9 million for the left-leaning channels.
Trumpers are winning the podcast game as well. Half of the top ten podcasts on Spotify right now are hosted by people who actively supported Trump in the last election, while only one leans Democratic."
I know you didn't write the wording for that first poll, but it should have been, "Do you support of oppose the war against Iran?", not, "Do you support of oppose the war with Iran?"
Congratulations, the senate predictor is very intuitive and easy to use! My slightest suggestion would be to move the candidate-quality slider to the top of the state analysis, making it more obvious that it is selectable, and also mirroring the national mood slider at the top. Maybe add a choice to type estimates rather than use the slider for devices in which it may be difficult to set it precisely.
I suggest you increase the national environment range to +/- 15%. Besides the fact that it's just for fun, if some significant event occurs, the environment could exceed D+10 (like the stock market crashing 30% as it did in 2008).
Interestingly (though not importantly), if you set the national environment to D+8 as you've suggested could happen by election day, the result is very close to what prediction markets currently say.
👌 for Senate Simulator! Striking to see how high the D+ must be to produce D51. BTW, as Maine residents (and with prior political poll experience), and as I see it now, the polls so far are not reliable indicators of November likely. The D leaders both have real weaknesses and they have some real money to spend beating on each other. R Collins has real weaknesses too, but third party money in the summer and fall will make a real difference.
Years ago, Washington state passed a referendum increasing the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation. It won in e dry part of the state. Raising the minimum wage is just about the most popular thing legislatures and Congress can do. That it doesn’t happen shows as much or more than anything else the power of corporate and business lobbying.
Our Kansas state legislature voted themselves a 93% raise in 2024. They just gave themselves another 4% raise this year, while giving state workers 1%.
And of course, forget raising the minimum wage, they haven't done that in 16 years.
A recent study in California also found that raising the minimum wage did not result in higher prices or decreased business at restaurants and fast food outlets.
30-35% who support you no matter what seems like an enduring political movement because it is not that hard to garner another 15-20% (and maybe 20% not necessary because of the structural advantages of big square states). But if the dumbass who is king does everything possible to scare off the 15% that is costly to the movement. No tariffs or war and MAGA is an enduring political movement despite torturing the undocumented, putting the most ill equipped people into cabinet positions and the corruption. Sounds like an enduring movement.
At this point there are not "Non maga republicans". They either are all in or they tapped out. There is only one fascist. The rest are just sheep.
No matter how much I played with the Kansas Senate race, there is no way Roger Marshall doesn't get reelected. (:::sob:::)
But it was very user friendly and I'm going to go back to try to see what it will take to get Talarico in the Senate.
Thanks, Elliot!
Hmm. With respect to both the Senate Speculator and the overall polling, I'm hearing that Democrats are getting beaten like a gong in social media, and that this sphere is not being seen or accounted in polling. Robert Reich posted that "A recent study found that of the 100 largest political YouTube channels, 64 of them are conservative. Add it all up, and the right-wing channels have a cumulative subscriber base of 248.6 million, versus 149.9 million for the left-leaning channels.
Trumpers are winning the podcast game as well. Half of the top ten podcasts on Spotify right now are hosted by people who actively supported Trump in the last election, while only one leans Democratic."
I know you didn't write the wording for that first poll, but it should have been, "Do you support of oppose the war against Iran?", not, "Do you support of oppose the war with Iran?"
Congratulations, the senate predictor is very intuitive and easy to use! My slightest suggestion would be to move the candidate-quality slider to the top of the state analysis, making it more obvious that it is selectable, and also mirroring the national mood slider at the top. Maybe add a choice to type estimates rather than use the slider for devices in which it may be difficult to set it precisely.
I suggest you increase the national environment range to +/- 15%. Besides the fact that it's just for fun, if some significant event occurs, the environment could exceed D+10 (like the stock market crashing 30% as it did in 2008).
Interestingly (though not importantly), if you set the national environment to D+8 as you've suggested could happen by election day, the result is very close to what prediction markets currently say.
thank you!
👌 for Senate Simulator! Striking to see how high the D+ must be to produce D51. BTW, as Maine residents (and with prior political poll experience), and as I see it now, the polls so far are not reliable indicators of November likely. The D leaders both have real weaknesses and they have some real money to spend beating on each other. R Collins has real weaknesses too, but third party money in the summer and fall will make a real difference.
Years ago, Washington state passed a referendum increasing the minimum wage and indexing it to inflation. It won in e dry part of the state. Raising the minimum wage is just about the most popular thing legislatures and Congress can do. That it doesn’t happen shows as much or more than anything else the power of corporate and business lobbying.
Our Kansas state legislature voted themselves a 93% raise in 2024. They just gave themselves another 4% raise this year, while giving state workers 1%.
And of course, forget raising the minimum wage, they haven't done that in 16 years.
A recent study in California also found that raising the minimum wage did not result in higher prices or decreased business at restaurants and fast food outlets.
Senate Simulator is great. I thought the ability to make adjustments state by state depending on candidates was especially useful. Thanks !
30-35% who support you no matter what seems like an enduring political movement because it is not that hard to garner another 15-20% (and maybe 20% not necessary because of the structural advantages of big square states). But if the dumbass who is king does everything possible to scare off the 15% that is costly to the movement. No tariffs or war and MAGA is an enduring political movement despite torturing the undocumented, putting the most ill equipped people into cabinet positions and the corruption. Sounds like an enduring movement.
it's not a movement, it's a cult.
Nixon left with 24% approval when he resigned. 10% undecided. (SMH)