I really appreciate your columns. A sorry that this comment is to some degree unrelated to the most recent content. I'd been considering a paid subscription and a few days ago, I received a note saying that some automated watcher decided I read you column often enough to be offered a 15% off subscription. I decided it was time since I'd been thinking about it anyhow, when I clicked to take advantage, the price was the usual $90 per year. I didn't pay it.....not that I probably won't still do it, but I really felt it was untruth in advertising and shouldn't be rewarded.
Oh, that’s strange. I know Substack has these automated incentives set up to circulate to readers. Ideally they would work, so I’m sorry to hear this. I’ve sent you an email with a code that does actually work! Thanks for your loyal readership!
Can this data be further massaged to show the approval ratings particular to Senate seats up for election in 2026 and for competitive house districts in 2026? That might help identify strategies and targets.
Senate seats wouldn't need much massaging at all since the boundaries are already the states. Just delete those with no active Senate race. :)
Can't speak for Elliott but just guessing, I doubt this sample size is enough to support estimating for 435 groups. If I'm wrong, I'm eager to learn more.
While we're at it, just checking intuition, did they have to drastically oversample states like Wyoming and Vermont to get the 50-state estimates? Seems like they would.
Another vote for immigration approval estimates. June numbers showed a lot more ICE arrests in Texas and in Florida, than even in California. It'd be especially interesting to try to see if ICE' actions are affecting the views of Latino voters. According to Pew Research, 48% of Hispanics voted for Trump in 2024, but only 25% voted in the last three general elections. If there's a backlash to ICE from Latinos, could make a difference.
With respect to polling about specific issues , I would be interested in how Trumps aggressive ICE stance is polling. The masking, lack of presentation of credentials, not allowing detainees to contact legal representation, and yes even starting to do some family separations smacks of flat out kidnapping of our neighbors. How's that going down with Americans?
Wanted to make sure you saw this, so posting again here:
“Mushrooming” tariffs.
The president and the Republicans want to use the tariff taxes to help pay for the $4.5 trillion in tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the wealthy.
They literally are taking money out of the pockets of the poor and middle class (tariffs) to enrich the wealthy (tax cuts), "welfare" for the wealthy, the “billionaire tax.”
They’ve collected $150 billion in tariffs from Americans so far, and by the end of the year they expect $300 billion. After ten years they expect $4 trillion in tariffs from the public to help pay for the tax cuts. Somewhere around 70% of the tax cuts — about $3.15 trillion — will go to the billionaires and millionaires in ten years.
What’s worse, I queried AI to learn about how tariffs will “mushroom” in price increases; in other words, because widespread tariffs will cause *many* goods (and services, labor, overhead, etc.) to be more expensive, businesses, will begin to raise their prices on goods even higher to keep up with widespread, growing inflation and operating costs.
As example, if a product cost $100 and you add the 20% tariff, it then costs $120. If the company raises the original price of the product further by $10.00 to $110 to keep up with widespread inflation due to broad-based tariffs, then when the 20% tariff is added at the port of entry, the cost then becomes $132.
The product jumped from $100, to $120 to $132 over time; how quick is hard to tell but sure to happen. And businesses will all be adjusting prices in the same manner to keep up with rising inflation because SO MANY goods are being tariffed, including on American-produced goods with tariffed raw materials.
All those “mushrooming” tariffs will be going to the federal government, so it means we will be paying higher and higher taxes as the years go by based on what we spend.
And what’s worse is that tariff money will be used to give to the millionaires and billionaires (tax cuts) and they will invest it in the stock market or other investments likely (or overseas) at great returns! We will be losing more and more money over time by mushrooming tariffs, and they will be gaining more and more wealth over time by taking *our* tariff money and growing it in the stock market.
What happens is you get two divergent economies moving pretty quickly in the opposite directions: greater and greater income inequality. The poor are getting poorer as costs accelerate on them over time due to mushrooming tariffs and general inflation, and the rich will get richer on the money of the poor (tariffs). In other words, they’re literally taking *our* money to grow greatly in wealth as we grow poorer and poorer.
The poor will begin to increase in potential generational poverty (they cut college Pell Grants too) and the rich will have growing generational wealth.
“The Golden Age” became the “Second Gilded Age.”
It’s a way the rich attempt to stay in power too because the government can be *bought* so they can continue taking from the poor to capitalize on in the stock market. They are taking *our* money to profit greatly from..
Of course there are likely many other factors to consider, such as business failures due to decreased demand as the poor attempt not to spend… and even potential stock market crashes as economic fundamentals become weak due to low demand and stagflation… but the fact remains, the poor will be faced with ever-increasing prices and the rich will take their money (tariffs) and grow greatly in wealth; about $315 billion in wealth per year from tariffs will “mushroom” in value in the stock market or other investments for the wealthy. To be fair, some of that $315 billion were tariffs from the wealthy as well; it’s just that the tariffs from the poor are obviously a greater percentage of their income and will hurt them more.
Another way high, broad-based tariffs MAY hurt the poor is with falling wages at some point due to stagflation, so higher prices (mushrooming tariffs and inflation) and falling wages is a painful scenario.
Another way tariffs will hurt the middle class is that with decreasing wealth due to mushrooming tariffs and inflation, if home prices rise, they may be further priced out of the market, which creates generational poverty.
I’m *not* an economist so encourage you to do your own due diligence, but one thing I know for sure, the rich are taking money from the poor to capitalize on in the stock market or other investments, creating massive wealth, as the poor grow even poorer over time…
…UNLESS we turn this ship around… by voting out the Republicans and their “trickle-UP” economics and stop tax cuts we cannot afford for the wealthy because of our $36 trillion national debt.
$10 trillion (almost 1/3) of our national debt came from *prior* tax cuts we couldn’t afford, that mainly benefited the wealthy, and that we are STILL paying for, for generations to come. They are dumping the debt of the billionaires and millionaires on us and our great-grandchildren by making *our* descendants pay for *their* tax cuts, and now they want to take our tariffs to profit from too, as we grow poorer and poorer: incomprehensible greed.
$23 trillion is held in the stock market by the top 1%…. 50% of the entire stock market is held by the 1%. Clearly money is “trickling-UP” because they hold 50% of the market, dumped $10 trillion on our national debt due to tax cuts, and *especially* because now they are even taking our tariffs…
I've also read that $50 TRILLION has moved from the bottom to the top since the 1970s, so clearly, money is "trickling-UP" if we consider this fact, and also the $10 trillion added to our national debt from prior tax cuts, and the $23 trillion, 50%, of wealth held in the stock market by the 1%. Also, the U.S. has 902 billionaires, the most of any other nations, so again, all of this indicates that money is CLEARLY "trickling-UP," and part of that is because of the Reagan tax cuts since 1981 -- and now that they're taking our tariffs for their tax cuts, and investing it in the stock market and other investments, even more will "trickle-UP."
I’m frustrated that Congress doesn’t debate these scenarios better with good economists testifying in Congress to understand the ramifications to the population more, and that they don’t take the time to educate the public better and allow for public comment before making decisions on economic policy, and they act in the best interest of the wealthy and not ours…
Also frustrated that high schools don’t emphasize business math and require classes in economics and markets because ignorance is hurting future generations and jeopardizing the fiscal health of our country.
If you’d like, Google these articles to learn the purpose of tariffs:
“Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress” (Reuters)
“Peter Navarro: Trump tariffs will help pay for the biggest tax cut in American history” (Video)
“Republicans leery of trying to pay for tax cuts with Trump’s tariffs” (Semafor news)
Peter Navarro, in the video, is the president’s economic advisor, so you know this is real.
Feel free to pass along by copy and paste, (please don’t restack) and let your friends and family know. Everyone has a right to know how they are using our tariff taxes. 😊
I really appreciate your columns. A sorry that this comment is to some degree unrelated to the most recent content. I'd been considering a paid subscription and a few days ago, I received a note saying that some automated watcher decided I read you column often enough to be offered a 15% off subscription. I decided it was time since I'd been thinking about it anyhow, when I clicked to take advantage, the price was the usual $90 per year. I didn't pay it.....not that I probably won't still do it, but I really felt it was untruth in advertising and shouldn't be rewarded.
Oh, that’s strange. I know Substack has these automated incentives set up to circulate to readers. Ideally they would work, so I’m sorry to hear this. I’ve sent you an email with a code that does actually work! Thanks for your loyal readership!
I’m curious to know how Texans feel about redistricting/ gerrymandering halfway through the normal Decennial event.
Can this data be further massaged to show the approval ratings particular to Senate seats up for election in 2026 and for competitive house districts in 2026? That might help identify strategies and targets.
Senate seats wouldn't need much massaging at all since the boundaries are already the states. Just delete those with no active Senate race. :)
Can't speak for Elliott but just guessing, I doubt this sample size is enough to support estimating for 435 groups. If I'm wrong, I'm eager to learn more.
While we're at it, just checking intuition, did they have to drastically oversample states like Wyoming and Vermont to get the 50-state estimates? Seems like they would.
Another vote for immigration approval estimates. June numbers showed a lot more ICE arrests in Texas and in Florida, than even in California. It'd be especially interesting to try to see if ICE' actions are affecting the views of Latino voters. According to Pew Research, 48% of Hispanics voted for Trump in 2024, but only 25% voted in the last three general elections. If there's a backlash to ICE from Latinos, could make a difference.
I would like to see polling centered around his mental acuity.
With respect to polling about specific issues , I would be interested in how Trumps aggressive ICE stance is polling. The masking, lack of presentation of credentials, not allowing detainees to contact legal representation, and yes even starting to do some family separations smacks of flat out kidnapping of our neighbors. How's that going down with Americans?
Well, per YouGov, we have seen a big increase in the share of Americans saying civil rights is the country’s “most important problem”
Wanted to make sure you saw this, so posting again here:
“Mushrooming” tariffs.
The president and the Republicans want to use the tariff taxes to help pay for the $4.5 trillion in tax cuts that disproportionately benefit the wealthy.
They literally are taking money out of the pockets of the poor and middle class (tariffs) to enrich the wealthy (tax cuts), "welfare" for the wealthy, the “billionaire tax.”
They’ve collected $150 billion in tariffs from Americans so far, and by the end of the year they expect $300 billion. After ten years they expect $4 trillion in tariffs from the public to help pay for the tax cuts. Somewhere around 70% of the tax cuts — about $3.15 trillion — will go to the billionaires and millionaires in ten years.
What’s worse, I queried AI to learn about how tariffs will “mushroom” in price increases; in other words, because widespread tariffs will cause *many* goods (and services, labor, overhead, etc.) to be more expensive, businesses, will begin to raise their prices on goods even higher to keep up with widespread, growing inflation and operating costs.
As example, if a product cost $100 and you add the 20% tariff, it then costs $120. If the company raises the original price of the product further by $10.00 to $110 to keep up with widespread inflation due to broad-based tariffs, then when the 20% tariff is added at the port of entry, the cost then becomes $132.
The product jumped from $100, to $120 to $132 over time; how quick is hard to tell but sure to happen. And businesses will all be adjusting prices in the same manner to keep up with rising inflation because SO MANY goods are being tariffed, including on American-produced goods with tariffed raw materials.
All those “mushrooming” tariffs will be going to the federal government, so it means we will be paying higher and higher taxes as the years go by based on what we spend.
And what’s worse is that tariff money will be used to give to the millionaires and billionaires (tax cuts) and they will invest it in the stock market or other investments likely (or overseas) at great returns! We will be losing more and more money over time by mushrooming tariffs, and they will be gaining more and more wealth over time by taking *our* tariff money and growing it in the stock market.
What happens is you get two divergent economies moving pretty quickly in the opposite directions: greater and greater income inequality. The poor are getting poorer as costs accelerate on them over time due to mushrooming tariffs and general inflation, and the rich will get richer on the money of the poor (tariffs). In other words, they’re literally taking *our* money to grow greatly in wealth as we grow poorer and poorer.
The poor will begin to increase in potential generational poverty (they cut college Pell Grants too) and the rich will have growing generational wealth.
“The Golden Age” became the “Second Gilded Age.”
It’s a way the rich attempt to stay in power too because the government can be *bought* so they can continue taking from the poor to capitalize on in the stock market. They are taking *our* money to profit greatly from..
Of course there are likely many other factors to consider, such as business failures due to decreased demand as the poor attempt not to spend… and even potential stock market crashes as economic fundamentals become weak due to low demand and stagflation… but the fact remains, the poor will be faced with ever-increasing prices and the rich will take their money (tariffs) and grow greatly in wealth; about $315 billion in wealth per year from tariffs will “mushroom” in value in the stock market or other investments for the wealthy. To be fair, some of that $315 billion were tariffs from the wealthy as well; it’s just that the tariffs from the poor are obviously a greater percentage of their income and will hurt them more.
Another way high, broad-based tariffs MAY hurt the poor is with falling wages at some point due to stagflation, so higher prices (mushrooming tariffs and inflation) and falling wages is a painful scenario.
Another way tariffs will hurt the middle class is that with decreasing wealth due to mushrooming tariffs and inflation, if home prices rise, they may be further priced out of the market, which creates generational poverty.
I’m *not* an economist so encourage you to do your own due diligence, but one thing I know for sure, the rich are taking money from the poor to capitalize on in the stock market or other investments, creating massive wealth, as the poor grow even poorer over time…
…UNLESS we turn this ship around… by voting out the Republicans and their “trickle-UP” economics and stop tax cuts we cannot afford for the wealthy because of our $36 trillion national debt.
$10 trillion (almost 1/3) of our national debt came from *prior* tax cuts we couldn’t afford, that mainly benefited the wealthy, and that we are STILL paying for, for generations to come. They are dumping the debt of the billionaires and millionaires on us and our great-grandchildren by making *our* descendants pay for *their* tax cuts, and now they want to take our tariffs to profit from too, as we grow poorer and poorer: incomprehensible greed.
$23 trillion is held in the stock market by the top 1%…. 50% of the entire stock market is held by the 1%. Clearly money is “trickling-UP” because they hold 50% of the market, dumped $10 trillion on our national debt due to tax cuts, and *especially* because now they are even taking our tariffs…
I've also read that $50 TRILLION has moved from the bottom to the top since the 1970s, so clearly, money is "trickling-UP" if we consider this fact, and also the $10 trillion added to our national debt from prior tax cuts, and the $23 trillion, 50%, of wealth held in the stock market by the 1%. Also, the U.S. has 902 billionaires, the most of any other nations, so again, all of this indicates that money is CLEARLY "trickling-UP," and part of that is because of the Reagan tax cuts since 1981 -- and now that they're taking our tariffs for their tax cuts, and investing it in the stock market and other investments, even more will "trickle-UP."
I’m frustrated that Congress doesn’t debate these scenarios better with good economists testifying in Congress to understand the ramifications to the population more, and that they don’t take the time to educate the public better and allow for public comment before making decisions on economic policy, and they act in the best interest of the wealthy and not ours…
Also frustrated that high schools don’t emphasize business math and require classes in economics and markets because ignorance is hurting future generations and jeopardizing the fiscal health of our country.
If you’d like, Google these articles to learn the purpose of tariffs:
“Trump push to use tariffs to pay for tax cuts faces opposition in Congress” (Reuters)
“Peter Navarro: Trump tariffs will help pay for the biggest tax cut in American history” (Video)
“Republicans leery of trying to pay for tax cuts with Trump’s tariffs” (Semafor news)
Peter Navarro, in the video, is the president’s economic advisor, so you know this is real.
Feel free to pass along by copy and paste, (please don’t restack) and let your friends and family know. Everyone has a right to know how they are using our tariff taxes. 😊