Profound thanks to G. Elliott Morris and to David Brown for this post and the discussion.
I agree with Mr. Morris completely. While he has taken his time to reach the conclusion other smart people on Substack reached months ago, I think that's because he is a calm, rational, serious person and isn't excitable. I'm not saying he's not exciting; today's post was, because we learned that our guide through the data in the era of Trumpism has finally reached the point where he thinks Trump has crossed every important line that a democracy can put up against an autocrat, albeit a comically immature, insecure, boastful, and mendacious one. Today, apparently, he got lost after climbing up onto the roof of the White House! (Video at 11!)
And, I think he's saying what David Brown did in his comment, "...political positions are not being discussed here, only the...question of support for the Constitution, rule of law and the American system of governance [is]…if you support the system then we can have a policy discussion, if you do not then nothing else matters."
That was helpful and illuminating to me and I want to thank him for it.
Not as worried about rigged government data, as about rigged elections. As Krugman writes, there are other sources for economic data. And the people who are informed won't believe the lies, while the others know what gas costs. 19% of Trump voters say they're worse off (Economist/YouGov today).
But elections rigged for Republicans are very worrisome. The 5th Circuit just upheld Texas' voter ID law for mail-in ballots. It's not fixing any actual problem, but will suppress votes. Then there's the large lawless ICE SS force, which could interfere with voters and ballot counting.
I disagree with your self assessment. Your language and attitude clearly echo left media opinions. I am purple so I notice. Your data may be unbiased but your presentation is not. It causes me to be skeptical of you.
When it comes to Trump, I don’t think you can criticize him without appearing like a partisan. The position of this newsletter is that this perception is worth the cost of not standing up for data and democracy.
Left media opinions? Your self described “purple” position may need additional self reflection here…political positions are not being discussed here, only the binary question of support for the Constitution, rule of law and the American system of governance…if you support the system then we can have a policy discussion, if you do not then nothing else matters.
Profound thanks to G. Elliott Morris and to David Brown for this post and the discussion.
I agree with Mr. Morris completely. While he has taken his time to reach the conclusion other smart people on Substack reached months ago, I think that's because he is a calm, rational, serious person and isn't excitable. I'm not saying he's not exciting; today's post was, because we learned that our guide through the data in the era of Trumpism has finally reached the point where he thinks Trump has crossed every important line that a democracy can put up against an autocrat, albeit a comically immature, insecure, boastful, and mendacious one. Today, apparently, he got lost after climbing up onto the roof of the White House! (Video at 11!)
And, I think he's saying what David Brown did in his comment, "...political positions are not being discussed here, only the...question of support for the Constitution, rule of law and the American system of governance [is]…if you support the system then we can have a policy discussion, if you do not then nothing else matters."
That was helpful and illuminating to me and I want to thank him for it.
Republicans are past the point of no return.
But they are the minority. It is time for a tyranny of the majority.
Rather be a Russian than a Democrat? Don't let the door hit you on the way out!
Not as worried about rigged government data, as about rigged elections. As Krugman writes, there are other sources for economic data. And the people who are informed won't believe the lies, while the others know what gas costs. 19% of Trump voters say they're worse off (Economist/YouGov today).
But elections rigged for Republicans are very worrisome. The 5th Circuit just upheld Texas' voter ID law for mail-in ballots. It's not fixing any actual problem, but will suppress votes. Then there's the large lawless ICE SS force, which could interfere with voters and ballot counting.
The possibility of permanent partisan gerrymanders in any state that isn't exactly 50-50 is scary and increasing rapidly
I disagree with your self assessment. Your language and attitude clearly echo left media opinions. I am purple so I notice. Your data may be unbiased but your presentation is not. It causes me to be skeptical of you.
When it comes to Trump, I don’t think you can criticize him without appearing like a partisan. The position of this newsletter is that this perception is worth the cost of not standing up for data and democracy.
Left media opinions? Your self described “purple” position may need additional self reflection here…political positions are not being discussed here, only the binary question of support for the Constitution, rule of law and the American system of governance…if you support the system then we can have a policy discussion, if you do not then nothing else matters.
What is it you disagree with? I thought this was well written but I'd like to have a better idea of what you think. Thanks.
Agree with Wolfson. Please specify!!! Which data or analysis are wrong and what are the right data or analysis?
In the second paragraph, the word "tail" I'm petty sure should be "real." "The tail risk of meaningful erosion..." Otherwise good job.
Oh, in the email header, I see: “Tail risk” refers to unlikely risk. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tail_risk
AH! Thanks!