It would also be interesting to look at the income distribution of “strongly approve” vs “strongly disapprove” responses for Trump and his policies. My guess would be that they are significantly higher for the “strongly disapprove” category, which is another reason for corporations not to bend to Trump’s demands even if they’re only thinking of the “bottom line.”
This is not to propose some unpleasant assertion that higher income people are necessarily better human beings but they may be better informed.
In biblical myth, the night before Assyria destroyed Babtlon, a lone hand wrote on the wall of a room where the Babylonian rulers were assembled this cryptic message: "MENE MENE TEKEL UPHARSIN". I think it was Josph that was summoned to decipher and said it meant, "You have been weighed in the balance and found wanting".
Dear Donald Trump, take a look at your approval rating now. Among all adults, 37%; among independents, 29%.
Unfortunately I see these numbers as stacked. Why! In overwhelming democratic states like NY, New Jersey or, especially , California the huge majorities skew the rest of the national averages. I'de like to see how his disapproval rate if you take out these sates (and, perhaps, Mass, Illinois Wash. and Oregon). Have the states that gave him the last election: Mich, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, etc see the light?
Low approval ratings will also spur DJT/GOP/MAGA to double down on their efforts to subvert future elections. Low approval ratings for Trump does not equate to 'YAY!! Our democracy is saved' it means more desperate attempts on the part of the regimen to stay in power despite them. More dangerous times ahead. Meme I saw recently: 'Fun historical fact. Once you peacefully install a fascist, you cannot peacefully remove them.' I am concerned that too many Americans are 'assuming' our institutions will hold. I'm not counting on that they will at this stage.
"Maybe someone in the West Wing reads Strength In Numbers." -- if you were in a Dem West Wing, what right wing source would you read (for lucid analysis rather than to track the flavor of delusions)?
Thank you. everyday, for your faithful work. We each appreciate you for expressing in many forms your patriotism....for sharing truths we need to receive.
Thank you for informing us of important past events that connect us with events of today.
With so much disinformation, you are a "rock" of truth for each of us.
My hope is that Trump and his band "power-seekers" will be replaced as soon as possible with true patriots!
Too many Americans have been misguided for too long. I have never understood the attraction.
We see the results of Trump's toxicity in every special election where Dems are outperforming by 10%. We'll see more of it November when we win VA and NJ, and again in 2026 when we take back the House.
MAGA can only win Presidential elections when news-avoiding voters turn out.
$1.6 million a day!!! Of YOUR MONEY!!! When 3.8 mn Americans ( we know of) are outta work TODAY because of trump!!!
THAT is how he is gonna recruit millions of Americans- u lost your job? Work for ICE and NHS …. South Park did whole scene on this. Teachers and counselors all losing their jobs so they become ICE agents just to earn money…
Perhaps a better way to say it would be: It's not a question of if being unpopular will hurt Trump and the GOP. The historical relationship between presidential approval and election results ... suggests it's a question of whether that will happen in time to save our democracy.
What if strongly approve and sttongly disapprove are counted as votes for and against, and all others are counted as unlikely to vote - all on a state by state basis? What does this predict for 2026, 2028 elctoral outcomes?
If you count the "somewhats" as entirely non-voting, then...
Democrats would get 65% of the two-party vote. (As points of reference, Reagan got 59% in 1984. FDR got 61% in 1936.) Obv really unlikely, but the coming Trumpression could have strange effects.
If I'm using PVI correctly, then 2026 Senate races like TN, KY, AL, AR, and SD become competitive. Those states have R+15, but I might be double-counting it.
Thanks for the comparison of strong disapproval between the administrations of Obama to Trump 2. Two things are notable. The first is that Trump clearly had a honeymoon of relatively low disapproval in January and that’s gone. Second is how Biden had virtually identical strong disapproval ratings as Trump 1 and Obama had far lower strong disapproval ratings despite being a controversial figure. The democrats need to learn a lesson here and question the viability of an elderly incumbent early in the election cycle!
The Fall won't wait till September 21. It is already here.
When you look at the packaging of these numbers what you see are the % of GOP that are live and die MAGA (Strongly Approve & 24%) vs. Conservatives and Independents who are drifting away (Trump January numbers). The cartoonist in me will project "How Low Trump Can Go" in a drawing next week that will credit Elliott's Post here... Nicely done.
I suspect House Republican leaders sent out a memo about the rebrand last month. In late August, IA-02 Rep. Ashley Hinson (now the front-runner for the U.S. Senate nomination in Iowa) was calling it the "working families tax cut bill" at her town halls. More on that here (it's a ways down):
I doubt there’s much they can do. Call it “un sac du merde” if you want, it’s still a bag of shit, and people have already decided that’s the case. Too late.
It would also be interesting to look at the income distribution of “strongly approve” vs “strongly disapprove” responses for Trump and his policies. My guess would be that they are significantly higher for the “strongly disapprove” category, which is another reason for corporations not to bend to Trump’s demands even if they’re only thinking of the “bottom line.”
This is not to propose some unpleasant assertion that higher income people are necessarily better human beings but they may be better informed.
In biblical myth, the night before Assyria destroyed Babtlon, a lone hand wrote on the wall of a room where the Babylonian rulers were assembled this cryptic message: "MENE MENE TEKEL UPHARSIN". I think it was Josph that was summoned to decipher and said it meant, "You have been weighed in the balance and found wanting".
Dear Donald Trump, take a look at your approval rating now. Among all adults, 37%; among independents, 29%.
MENE MENE TEKEL UPHARSIN.
Unfortunately I see these numbers as stacked. Why! In overwhelming democratic states like NY, New Jersey or, especially , California the huge majorities skew the rest of the national averages. I'de like to see how his disapproval rate if you take out these sates (and, perhaps, Mass, Illinois Wash. and Oregon). Have the states that gave him the last election: Mich, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Georgia, etc see the light?
You’re probably right but I don’t think that’s the point, since Morris was talking about the U.S. population as a whole.
Low approval ratings will also spur DJT/GOP/MAGA to double down on their efforts to subvert future elections. Low approval ratings for Trump does not equate to 'YAY!! Our democracy is saved' it means more desperate attempts on the part of the regimen to stay in power despite them. More dangerous times ahead. Meme I saw recently: 'Fun historical fact. Once you peacefully install a fascist, you cannot peacefully remove them.' I am concerned that too many Americans are 'assuming' our institutions will hold. I'm not counting on that they will at this stage.
"Maybe someone in the West Wing reads Strength In Numbers." -- if you were in a Dem West Wing, what right wing source would you read (for lucid analysis rather than to track the flavor of delusions)?
You know that if the job the President is doing includes declaring you the enemy or scum, etc., you might strongly disapprove.
Heather,
Thank you. everyday, for your faithful work. We each appreciate you for expressing in many forms your patriotism....for sharing truths we need to receive.
Thank you for informing us of important past events that connect us with events of today.
With so much disinformation, you are a "rock" of truth for each of us.
My hope is that Trump and his band "power-seekers" will be replaced as soon as possible with true patriots!
Too many Americans have been misguided for too long. I have never understood the attraction.
I support the analysis, but please never use the phrase “nearly a majority”. Weasel words.
Think of how silly it would be to describe 54% as “nearly a minority”.
“Nearly half” or “a growing number” or “a significant increase” would all be more honest.
I hope the objectivity of your words can better match the objectivity of your numbers. That is where the strength is, after all.
We see the results of Trump's toxicity in every special election where Dems are outperforming by 10%. We'll see more of it November when we win VA and NJ, and again in 2026 when we take back the House.
MAGA can only win Presidential elections when news-avoiding voters turn out.
$1.6 million a day!!! Of YOUR MONEY!!! When 3.8 mn Americans ( we know of) are outta work TODAY because of trump!!!
THAT is how he is gonna recruit millions of Americans- u lost your job? Work for ICE and NHS …. South Park did whole scene on this. Teachers and counselors all losing their jobs so they become ICE agents just to earn money…
https://chicago.suntimes.com/the-watchdogs/2025/09/05/national-guard-deployment-trump-chicago-taxpayers-analysis
Perhaps a better way to say it would be: It's not a question of if being unpopular will hurt Trump and the GOP. The historical relationship between presidential approval and election results ... suggests it's a question of whether that will happen in time to save our democracy.
What if strongly approve and sttongly disapprove are counted as votes for and against, and all others are counted as unlikely to vote - all on a state by state basis? What does this predict for 2026, 2028 elctoral outcomes?
If you count the "somewhats" as entirely non-voting, then...
Democrats would get 65% of the two-party vote. (As points of reference, Reagan got 59% in 1984. FDR got 61% in 1936.) Obv really unlikely, but the coming Trumpression could have strange effects.
If I'm using PVI correctly, then 2026 Senate races like TN, KY, AL, AR, and SD become competitive. Those states have R+15, but I might be double-counting it.
Thank you. I appreciate your analysis. I do understand that Trump repression make all prediction very uncertain.
Thanks for the comparison of strong disapproval between the administrations of Obama to Trump 2. Two things are notable. The first is that Trump clearly had a honeymoon of relatively low disapproval in January and that’s gone. Second is how Biden had virtually identical strong disapproval ratings as Trump 1 and Obama had far lower strong disapproval ratings despite being a controversial figure. The democrats need to learn a lesson here and question the viability of an elderly incumbent early in the election cycle!
The Fall won't wait till September 21. It is already here.
When you look at the packaging of these numbers what you see are the % of GOP that are live and die MAGA (Strongly Approve & 24%) vs. Conservatives and Independents who are drifting away (Trump January numbers). The cartoonist in me will project "How Low Trump Can Go" in a drawing next week that will credit Elliott's Post here... Nicely done.
I suspect House Republican leaders sent out a memo about the rebrand last month. In late August, IA-02 Rep. Ashley Hinson (now the front-runner for the U.S. Senate nomination in Iowa) was calling it the "working families tax cut bill" at her town halls. More on that here (it's a ways down):
https://laurabelin.substack.com/p/ernst-retirement-watch-sioux-city
August Pfluger as well.
When Trump pushes to rebrand the ugly bill, what would even the most brilliant propagandist do to move supporters back into the strongly approve camp?
I doubt there’s much they can do. Call it “un sac du merde” if you want, it’s still a bag of shit, and people have already decided that’s the case. Too late.
"un sac de merde"
Oops, typo