This will hurt OUR credit rate- forcing tax payers to pay more.We subsidize oil and coal/gas.Renewables would be cheaper and PERMANATELY so.Bit coin is now going into 401K's a first,and risky.Overtime tax breaks come back 1yr? Corp. breaks- FOREVER.
Where does Medicare go? To hospitals,nursing homes and nurses. Not another country or corp.
If they honestly wanted to fund the gov., they would have worked with Dems on the Billionaire Bastards' Bill. Their most notable position is against Dems, so fighting is built in to their selling points. Russell Vought is salivating to shut it down, fire tens of thousands more people and dance on all their empty desks. Trump's congressional high priests work on one burnt offering at a time for their Leader, not bothering to consider how the sparks will ignite another part of the agenda down the road.
Funding fascism is a *bad look* any way you slice it, but that's actually not why we shouldn't do it.
GEM: I wrote today for the sole purpose of unreservedly endorsing your footnote. That said, I want Rs to own solely all the harm they're doing to the country.
I am an independent and I wrote to the opposition party in Congress representing my state and the democrats opposition leaders in congress separately the following: Dear Honorable Senator Warner, Kaine, Schumer and Jeffrey:
I want to vehemently reiterate my position as an Independent and urge you NOT to support any CR budget stopgap. If the Democrats can't defend and stand for what they believe in, and cave in to the Republicans' demagogic tactics and you all fall for it then you will show you are not up to the fight for the American people and therefore Not deserving of my vote which will start with the upcoming Virginia governor race and extend to the 2026 midterm elections. Please stand your ground and don't vote to extend any stopgap CR if you don't get the added funding for Obamacare subsidies and a reversal of Medicaid cuts anything less than this will show me that Democrats are not a legitimate countermeasure to the Republicans and I will withhold my vote going forward if you let the Republicans scare you.
You are in congress and you think not at all unless your boss the president tells you to? What do we need congress for if they are yes sir people!?! Fire all the republicans atleast the democrats care about healthcare, food, education, for the PEOPLE!!! So yes republicans and Trump want the government to shut down. They don’t want the Epstein files to be released because the pedophiles are amongst them!!!! The crazy Qanon cult was right about one thing … there are pedophiles in the government!!!! And the rich elite of the world run a sex trafficking network!!!
How on earth can anyone believe that this issue will further impair the reputation of Congress? Reputations are not measured in negative numbers (nor in unreal or irrational numbers, for that matter.) in other words, Congress’s reputation is already so low, it can’t get any worse, whatever happens.
IIRC, some months ago, no less than Tony Fabrizio,Trump's chief pollster, was part of a group who went to the Hill and gave Rs a dire warning about what ending the ACA premium subsidies could do to them in the mid-terms. Nevertheless, they seem determined to do just that.
So, maybe if the Democrats fight on that hill, they'll win either way. If Rs cave, win. If Ds have to cave, ACA premiums will rise sharply, and we'll find out just how good a pollster Fabrizio is. Afaik, he's very good.
I've been thinking about the shutdown in the context of Democrats' net favorability. Currently, it is at historic lows in absolute terms. It's also around 17 points more negative than Republicans, per YouGov. (Last month it was 13 points more negative. The most recent poll was taken a few days after the Kirk killing, so I suspect Republicans got a sympathy bump that won't prove durable. But we'll see.)
What's interesting about Democrats' favorability problems, as Elliott has written previously, is that they're driven largely by base dissatisfaction. That trend materialized right after the election -- no one likes a loser -- but it became more pronounced after Senate Democrats voted to keep the government open back in March. They've yet to really recover in any significant way. Many Democrats continue to see the party as ineffectual.
The most obvious way Democrats could restore some confidence would be to retire at least some of the current leadership. They're apparently not willing to countenance that option. They need some other way to show that they're willing to fight. Maybe their approach to the shutdown will do that, maybe not. But it's not obviously wrong.
And yeah, maybe Dem favorability will recover gradually anyway as we enter the campaign season and people hear more from Dem candidates. Or maybe favorability just won't matter, and the base will turn out anyway. But after being assured by many analysts that people would eventually come around to Dems in 2024, I'm far from certain.
revealed that people still think Democrats have less of a plan… on most things, even after the GOP’s terrible handling of just about everything they’re currently in charge of. Why is this? Elliott, what’s your take?
Republicans have a very comprehensive plan in project 2025. It’s a terrible plan and the implementation is horrible, nevertheless, it projects strength. Dems always appear to be flying by the seat of their pants and only reacting to Republicans. Schumer and Dems standing their ground on the CR is imperative. Fighting back forcefully will project strength. Elliot’s point that Dems are going to be blamed for the shutdown in either case is a good one.
I saw Elliott mention on Bluesky that he'd like to see the breakdown by party. I would, too. Around 40% of the respondents didn't answer those questions in the Reuters/Ipsos poll. I would bet that they're disproportionately Dems and Dem-leaners.
This is where fox news steps in. Most Americans are in the scenario where they believe the dems are shutting down the govt to ask for free transgender operations for kids who then pee in literboxes and play in girls volleyball. Yes we really really are that hateful and stupid
In your telling, how much of the persuadable electorate gets its news from Fox? It's not that much. Fox's audience, aside from aging out, is almost entirely folks predisposed to vote Republican. No one else believes them.
Sadly people do watch Fox as I hear a repeated lie from a lot of ages and that’s because they watch Fox and their kids pick up the things their parents say. Dumb people abound!!!
This is not about persuadable voters at the moment since the mid terms more than 1 year away. It's about the public opinion in general.
But, going to voters: The *margin* of voters tilting elections one way or the other is razor thin; the presidency was won on a few hundred thousand votes (0.1% of the population) and the house imbalance is four seats.
It is enough to tilt a *very small* number of voters to gain control, especially given the distorted US electoral system.
Elliott, read the OMB memo. It doesn't command agencies to do RIFs if there's a shutdown. It says that they are "directed to consider RIFs" and tells them to do what they should be doing anyway as standard procedure. Vought knows better than tontry and order RIFs
"But the Trump administration coupled its formal notification with an additional directive to agencies, telling them “to use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force” notices to lay off federal employees. Since taking office, President Trump has invoked this process repeatedly in a campaign that began with the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, though some affected workers were later rehired or contested their firing in court.
In the new memo, the White House told agency leaders to focus on eliminating positions where funding has expired, or could not be sourced under other laws, and had been deemed to be “not consistent” with President Trump’s political agenda.
I work as a Fed. If this was an actual order to RIF people, it wouldn't say "consider". It would say "You will institute RIFs".
Vought wants to make this look like an order but he knows it's illegal to order RIFs in a shutdown.
Go talk to any Feds you may know. Ask them if they've heard from their HR people about shutdown preparations and if RIFs are planned during a shutdown.
Interesting point, but the Trump appointees have a history of using language such as "consider" that their subordinates take as an implicit command, especially if they want to impress the current president by showing that they can go above and beyond.
This will hurt OUR credit rate- forcing tax payers to pay more.We subsidize oil and coal/gas.Renewables would be cheaper and PERMANATELY so.Bit coin is now going into 401K's a first,and risky.Overtime tax breaks come back 1yr? Corp. breaks- FOREVER.
Where does Medicare go? To hospitals,nursing homes and nurses. Not another country or corp.
Danger,run don't walk away from the big Fugly bil
or not RESPECTFULLY
If they honestly wanted to fund the gov., they would have worked with Dems on the Billionaire Bastards' Bill. Their most notable position is against Dems, so fighting is built in to their selling points. Russell Vought is salivating to shut it down, fire tens of thousands more people and dance on all their empty desks. Trump's congressional high priests work on one burnt offering at a time for their Leader, not bothering to consider how the sparks will ignite another part of the agenda down the road.
Funding fascism is a *bad look* any way you slice it, but that's actually not why we shouldn't do it.
GEM: I wrote today for the sole purpose of unreservedly endorsing your footnote. That said, I want Rs to own solely all the harm they're doing to the country.
I am an independent and I wrote to the opposition party in Congress representing my state and the democrats opposition leaders in congress separately the following: Dear Honorable Senator Warner, Kaine, Schumer and Jeffrey:
I want to vehemently reiterate my position as an Independent and urge you NOT to support any CR budget stopgap. If the Democrats can't defend and stand for what they believe in, and cave in to the Republicans' demagogic tactics and you all fall for it then you will show you are not up to the fight for the American people and therefore Not deserving of my vote which will start with the upcoming Virginia governor race and extend to the 2026 midterm elections. Please stand your ground and don't vote to extend any stopgap CR if you don't get the added funding for Obamacare subsidies and a reversal of Medicaid cuts anything less than this will show me that Democrats are not a legitimate countermeasure to the Republicans and I will withhold my vote going forward if you let the Republicans scare you.
You are in congress and you think not at all unless your boss the president tells you to? What do we need congress for if they are yes sir people!?! Fire all the republicans atleast the democrats care about healthcare, food, education, for the PEOPLE!!! So yes republicans and Trump want the government to shut down. They don’t want the Epstein files to be released because the pedophiles are amongst them!!!! The crazy Qanon cult was right about one thing … there are pedophiles in the government!!!! And the rich elite of the world run a sex trafficking network!!!
How on earth can anyone believe that this issue will further impair the reputation of Congress? Reputations are not measured in negative numbers (nor in unreal or irrational numbers, for that matter.) in other words, Congress’s reputation is already so low, it can’t get any worse, whatever happens.
If only the Dems knew how to message effectively and seize the moment
IIRC, some months ago, no less than Tony Fabrizio,Trump's chief pollster, was part of a group who went to the Hill and gave Rs a dire warning about what ending the ACA premium subsidies could do to them in the mid-terms. Nevertheless, they seem determined to do just that.
So, maybe if the Democrats fight on that hill, they'll win either way. If Rs cave, win. If Ds have to cave, ACA premiums will rise sharply, and we'll find out just how good a pollster Fabrizio is. Afaik, he's very good.
Good if Dems cave R drops further long term and real Dems have a chance to dump pseudoR weak Dem 'leadership'?
I've been thinking about the shutdown in the context of Democrats' net favorability. Currently, it is at historic lows in absolute terms. It's also around 17 points more negative than Republicans, per YouGov. (Last month it was 13 points more negative. The most recent poll was taken a few days after the Kirk killing, so I suspect Republicans got a sympathy bump that won't prove durable. But we'll see.)
What's interesting about Democrats' favorability problems, as Elliott has written previously, is that they're driven largely by base dissatisfaction. That trend materialized right after the election -- no one likes a loser -- but it became more pronounced after Senate Democrats voted to keep the government open back in March. They've yet to really recover in any significant way. Many Democrats continue to see the party as ineffectual.
The most obvious way Democrats could restore some confidence would be to retire at least some of the current leadership. They're apparently not willing to countenance that option. They need some other way to show that they're willing to fight. Maybe their approach to the shutdown will do that, maybe not. But it's not obviously wrong.
And yeah, maybe Dem favorability will recover gradually anyway as we enter the campaign season and people hear more from Dem candidates. Or maybe favorability just won't matter, and the base will turn out anyway. But after being assured by many analysts that people would eventually come around to Dems in 2024, I'm far from certain.
Yeah, the most recent Reuters/Ipsos poll
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trumps-approval-dips-americans-worry-about-economy-reutersipsos-poll-finds-2025-09-23/
revealed that people still think Democrats have less of a plan… on most things, even after the GOP’s terrible handling of just about everything they’re currently in charge of. Why is this? Elliott, what’s your take?
Republicans have a very comprehensive plan in project 2025. It’s a terrible plan and the implementation is horrible, nevertheless, it projects strength. Dems always appear to be flying by the seat of their pants and only reacting to Republicans. Schumer and Dems standing their ground on the CR is imperative. Fighting back forcefully will project strength. Elliot’s point that Dems are going to be blamed for the shutdown in either case is a good one.
I saw Elliott mention on Bluesky that he'd like to see the breakdown by party. I would, too. Around 40% of the respondents didn't answer those questions in the Reuters/Ipsos poll. I would bet that they're disproportionately Dems and Dem-leaners.
This is where fox news steps in. Most Americans are in the scenario where they believe the dems are shutting down the govt to ask for free transgender operations for kids who then pee in literboxes and play in girls volleyball. Yes we really really are that hateful and stupid
In your telling, how much of the persuadable electorate gets its news from Fox? It's not that much. Fox's audience, aside from aging out, is almost entirely folks predisposed to vote Republican. No one else believes them.
Sadly people do watch Fox as I hear a repeated lie from a lot of ages and that’s because they watch Fox and their kids pick up the things their parents say. Dumb people abound!!!
This is not about persuadable voters at the moment since the mid terms more than 1 year away. It's about the public opinion in general.
But, going to voters: The *margin* of voters tilting elections one way or the other is razor thin; the presidency was won on a few hundred thousand votes (0.1% of the population) and the house imbalance is four seats.
It is enough to tilt a *very small* number of voters to gain control, especially given the distorted US electoral system.
Elliott, read the OMB memo. It doesn't command agencies to do RIFs if there's a shutdown. It says that they are "directed to consider RIFs" and tells them to do what they should be doing anyway as standard procedure. Vought knows better than tontry and order RIFs
From the Times story:
"But the Trump administration coupled its formal notification with an additional directive to agencies, telling them “to use this opportunity to consider Reduction in Force” notices to lay off federal employees. Since taking office, President Trump has invoked this process repeatedly in a campaign that began with the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, though some affected workers were later rehired or contested their firing in court.
In the new memo, the White House told agency leaders to focus on eliminating positions where funding has expired, or could not be sourced under other laws, and had been deemed to be “not consistent” with President Trump’s political agenda.
"
"Consider" isn't "You must do this".
I work as a Fed. If this was an actual order to RIF people, it wouldn't say "consider". It would say "You will institute RIFs".
Vought wants to make this look like an order but he knows it's illegal to order RIFs in a shutdown.
Go talk to any Feds you may know. Ask them if they've heard from their HR people about shutdown preparations and if RIFs are planned during a shutdown.
Interesting point, but the Trump appointees have a history of using language such as "consider" that their subordinates take as an implicit command, especially if they want to impress the current president by showing that they can go above and beyond.
Does Vought really care about how anything has been done in the past.
It's the law. He's gotten his hand spanked hard for ignoring it.