The most worrying sign for Dems is that they're lagging in partisan registrations, and have been now for around half a decade. That may not matter hugely for the midterms, but it almost certainly will in 2028.
Democrats have a 10 point registration advantage in Adam Gray's (D) California CD, and a 12 point margin in David Valadao's (R) CD. Both these CD's are agricultural, and the round-up of farm workers could be a big motivating factor for people to turn out and vote Democratic.
You can see in the table, in FL-01 overall Black turnout was stronger than white turnout, but not stronger than turnout among white Democrats specifically, who turned out at much higher rates than other white people. Turnout for white Republicans was just 40%, for Black voters it was 47% and for white Democrats it was a whopping 59%
This is the article I needed this morning as I watch the coverage in the House of the vote on the MAGA Murder Bill. Rep Jeffries is quite eloquent speaking to the harm the Americans will be subjected to by the MAGA bullies, including the Republicans, in service of the Billionaires. We have much work to do and we are seeing some of the positive results. Happy 4th of July to all those who are pro democracy advocates.
Good note about registration not necessarily reflecting affiliation. Northern Virginia leans heavily Democratic but anyone can walk up and vote in either primary election (which in the past sometimes inspires one party or the other to replace a primary with a caucus or closed selection process). And then I suspect that many who like me consider ourselves independents show up and vote as Democrats because the alternative is unacceptable.
Excellent - thank you!
The most worrying sign for Dems is that they're lagging in partisan registrations, and have been now for around half a decade. That may not matter hugely for the midterms, but it almost certainly will in 2028.
Unfortunately, yes ...
Democrats have a 10 point registration advantage in Adam Gray's (D) California CD, and a 12 point margin in David Valadao's (R) CD. Both these CD's are agricultural, and the round-up of farm workers could be a big motivating factor for people to turn out and vote Democratic.
"Drilling down, Black turnout in FL-01 didn’t eclipse white Democratic turnout (because apparently nothing does these days)"
If that is so, why in the table for FL-01 turnout is white 41% while black is 47%?
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In FL-06 the percentages are what is claimed about white turnout vs. black turnout, 46.7% white vs. 40.7% black
You can see in the table, in FL-01 overall Black turnout was stronger than white turnout, but not stronger than turnout among white Democrats specifically, who turned out at much higher rates than other white people. Turnout for white Republicans was just 40%, for Black voters it was 47% and for white Democrats it was a whopping 59%
This is the article I needed this morning as I watch the coverage in the House of the vote on the MAGA Murder Bill. Rep Jeffries is quite eloquent speaking to the harm the Americans will be subjected to by the MAGA bullies, including the Republicans, in service of the Billionaires. We have much work to do and we are seeing some of the positive results. Happy 4th of July to all those who are pro democracy advocates.
Good note about registration not necessarily reflecting affiliation. Northern Virginia leans heavily Democratic but anyone can walk up and vote in either primary election (which in the past sometimes inspires one party or the other to replace a primary with a caucus or closed selection process). And then I suspect that many who like me consider ourselves independents show up and vote as Democrats because the alternative is unacceptable.