Late to this, but this is extremely compelling and the data on young voter engagement confirms my suspicions that given what we know about Trump’s performance among young voters in 24, it will be very difficult for R’s to repeat in 26 (and there’s reason to believe Vance may not be able to replicate it in 28 but that’s a different topic).
The most worrying sign for Dems is that they're lagging in partisan registrations, and have been now for around half a decade. That may not matter hugely for the midterms, but it almost certainly will in 2028.
There are ancestrally Democratic voters in places like WV, yes. But what I'm talking about is new voter registrations. New Republican registrants have outnumbered new Democratic registrants for several years now, including since the 2024 election.
Democrats have simply not been pouring the same resources into registration that they did, say, 10 years ago. Meanwhile, GOP-aligned orgs like TPUSA focus heavily on voter registration.
One of new DNC Chair Ken Martin's declared priorities is stepping up Dems' registration game. Fingers crossed that he's able follow through.
That's happened in places like PA during 2020 and 2022 and Dems were successful there. You should only really looknat new registrants in the months leading up to the midterms.
Democrats have a 10 point registration advantage in Adam Gray's (D) California CD, and a 12 point margin in David Valadao's (R) CD. Both these CD's are agricultural, and the round-up of farm workers could be a big motivating factor for people to turn out and vote Democratic.
You can see in the table, in FL-01 overall Black turnout was stronger than white turnout, but not stronger than turnout among white Democrats specifically, who turned out at much higher rates than other white people. Turnout for white Republicans was just 40%, for Black voters it was 47% and for white Democrats it was a whopping 59%
This is the article I needed this morning as I watch the coverage in the House of the vote on the MAGA Murder Bill. Rep Jeffries is quite eloquent speaking to the harm the Americans will be subjected to by the MAGA bullies, including the Republicans, in service of the Billionaires. We have much work to do and we are seeing some of the positive results. Happy 4th of July to all those who are pro democracy advocates.
Good note about registration not necessarily reflecting affiliation. Northern Virginia leans heavily Democratic but anyone can walk up and vote in either primary election (which in the past sometimes inspires one party or the other to replace a primary with a caucus or closed selection process). And then I suspect that many who like me consider ourselves independents show up and vote as Democrats because the alternative is unacceptable.
The tables and charts are hard to read if you have dark mode on for Substack.
Late to this, but this is extremely compelling and the data on young voter engagement confirms my suspicions that given what we know about Trump’s performance among young voters in 24, it will be very difficult for R’s to repeat in 26 (and there’s reason to believe Vance may not be able to replicate it in 28 but that’s a different topic).
here’s how to harness that energy
Excellent - thank you!
The most worrying sign for Dems is that they're lagging in partisan registrations, and have been now for around half a decade. That may not matter hugely for the midterms, but it almost certainly will in 2028.
Partisan Registrations aren't a good metric to go by. Otherwise WV and Louisiana would be way more democratic than they actually are
There are ancestrally Democratic voters in places like WV, yes. But what I'm talking about is new voter registrations. New Republican registrants have outnumbered new Democratic registrants for several years now, including since the 2024 election.
Democrats have simply not been pouring the same resources into registration that they did, say, 10 years ago. Meanwhile, GOP-aligned orgs like TPUSA focus heavily on voter registration.
One of new DNC Chair Ken Martin's declared priorities is stepping up Dems' registration game. Fingers crossed that he's able follow through.
That's happened in places like PA during 2020 and 2022 and Dems were successful there. You should only really looknat new registrants in the months leading up to the midterms.
Unfortunately, yes ...
Democrats have a 10 point registration advantage in Adam Gray's (D) California CD, and a 12 point margin in David Valadao's (R) CD. Both these CD's are agricultural, and the round-up of farm workers could be a big motivating factor for people to turn out and vote Democratic.
"Drilling down, Black turnout in FL-01 didn’t eclipse white Democratic turnout (because apparently nothing does these days)"
If that is so, why in the table for FL-01 turnout is white 41% while black is 47%?
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In FL-06 the percentages are what is claimed about white turnout vs. black turnout, 46.7% white vs. 40.7% black
You can see in the table, in FL-01 overall Black turnout was stronger than white turnout, but not stronger than turnout among white Democrats specifically, who turned out at much higher rates than other white people. Turnout for white Republicans was just 40%, for Black voters it was 47% and for white Democrats it was a whopping 59%
This is the article I needed this morning as I watch the coverage in the House of the vote on the MAGA Murder Bill. Rep Jeffries is quite eloquent speaking to the harm the Americans will be subjected to by the MAGA bullies, including the Republicans, in service of the Billionaires. We have much work to do and we are seeing some of the positive results. Happy 4th of July to all those who are pro democracy advocates.
Good note about registration not necessarily reflecting affiliation. Northern Virginia leans heavily Democratic but anyone can walk up and vote in either primary election (which in the past sometimes inspires one party or the other to replace a primary with a caucus or closed selection process). And then I suspect that many who like me consider ourselves independents show up and vote as Democrats because the alternative is unacceptable.