The shutdown helps Democrats by changing what "immigration" means to voters
Trump's approval on immigration varies by nearly 20 points depending on whether respondents are asked about border security, deportations, ICE, or immigration in general
The partial government shutdown impacting the Department of Homeland Security enters its seventh day today, Feb. 20, 2026. It won’t end anytime soon. Congress is on recess until Feb. 23, and the White House has rejected Democrats’ latest counteroffer of various ICE reforms in exchange for department funding.
From a distance, this looks like a good old-fashioned shutdown. But Democrats are using the impasse as an opportunity to change what voters see in their heads when they hear the word “immigration.” On this, they have had some real success recently. While Trump polls significantly better on his handling of the border than on immigration overall, the gap between how voters feel about his immigration agenda (bad) and deportations (worse) has been shrinking. Every day the shutdown drags on, the national conversation about immigration drifts further from border crossings and closer to ICE agents in American cities.
This week’s Chart of the Week shows that voters see “immigration” differently across policy questions, which creates an opportunity for parties to reframe the issue in their favor.
“Immigration” no longer means “border security.” Democrats want to keep it that way
One of the first big points I made at Strength In Numbers after Donald Trump won the 2024 election was that “immigration” was not one single issue. Rather, it’s an umbrella issue that captures different policies in different circumstances. In 2018, when Fox News was covering “migrant caravans” coming to Texas, “immigration” meant border security. In 2024, it meant mass deportations.
Now, “immigration” to many Americans means “federal agents in cities kidnapping children and killing protestors.” My argument at the onset of Trump’s presidency was that this shift in policy substance on immigration would lead to declining approval ratings for Trump on the issue, since his deportation policy (the most visible policy in Trump’s first year) was much more unpopular than the other lead theme, border security.
Here’s what this looks like in the polls. Trump’s approval rating on four dimensions of immigration policy — “immigration,” deportations, ICE, and border security varies a lot by category, and from poll to poll:
In my January Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, for instance, Trump was at +4 net on border security, -9 on immigration, and -12 on deportations. Fox News found a similar pattern in their Jan. 23-26 survey: 52% approved of Trump on border security vs. 45% on immigration — a 7-point gap. And it gets worse as you move further from the border and into American communities. A New York Times/Siena University poll in January found just 36% of adults approve of ICE’s job performance, with 63% disapproving. Quinnipiac found similar numbers in late January: 38% approved of Trump on immigration, but just 34% approved of ICE — and there was nearly a 10-point difference in net rating. Finally, AP-NORC found in early February that 62% of Americans said Trump had “gone too far” on city deployments — and his job approval among independents collapsed from 37% to 23%.
Here’s another chart (from the data hub) showing how views about immigration have evolved over time. You can see that from ~May to September of 2025, the trends started to converge. This period corresponded with a huge increase in the share of news coverage about immigration that mentioned deportations. And now, Trump’s approval on both issues is near an all-time low. Given the events of early 2026, that is no surprise.
And this is what Democrats are betting on the shutdown. Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez-Masto said on The Daily podcast on Feb. 19 that Democrats see an electoral opportunity in forcing Republicans to confront the president’s domestic troop deployments head-on. Every day the shutdown continues, says Masto, the immigration conversation is about ICE agents operating in American cities, not border crossings. That moves the issue from comparably favorable terrain for Trump — where nearly 50% approve — to a place where he is doing much worse.
The other thing working in Democrats’ favor, as I wrote two weeks ago, is that basically all their demands are supported by a supermajority of American voters. The leverage Democrats have in the shutdown is not politics, and not even that what they’re asking for is just the right thing to do. Their leverage is the American public.
Shutdowns are usually scored as wins or losses based on whether the instigating party wins concessions. (Usually, it doesn’t.). But this one may matter more for what it teaches Democrats about issue framing and agenda setting. As I argued last year, Democrats could win the immigration issue back from Trump by changing the version of “immigration” that lives in voters’ heads. By keeping the pressure on, they’re hoping to turn a political wash into an electoral win.
Related Articles
If you’re a frequent reader of Strength In Numbers, I’m confident you will get a lot of value out of a paid subscription. Paid subscribers get access to Tuesday Deep Dives, the full post archive, early access to new data products, and the satisfaction of supporting independent, data-driven political journalism. Become a paying member today.
If subscribing isn’t right for you, the best thing you can do to help my business grow is share this post on social media.
Trump's approval on immigration is about to go even lower once we start seeing more stories about the horrid conditions in the deportation camps. We've only just started hearing about dangerously ill children needing hospitalization due to conditions in ICE facilities, and little children's letters being confiscated. But with DHS buying up warehouses to set up CECOT-style concentration camps, watch Trump's polling fall through a black hole.