In this week’s live recording of the Strength in Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir cover the latest on the Iran ceasefire, Tuesday’s elections in Wisconsin, and Elliott’s new statistical model estimating Trump’s approval rating in every congressional district and state in the country.
Here are the big takeaways:
Wisconsin was a wipeout, and the swing was especially large in rural counties. Liberal Judge Chris Taylor won the state Supreme Court race by 20 points, roughly double the margin of other liberal justices in recent elections and the biggest win since 1999. But the results ran far beyond the headline contest: Democrats won the mayor’s race in the conservative stronghold of Waukesha and flipped the county executive seat in Portage County by more than 30 points after losing it narrowly four years ago. Some of the sharpest swings came in Wisconsin’s most rural counties, where the GOP is usually dominant, raising the possibility of a bigger-than-expected Democratic wave in November.
New modeling shows Trump is underwater in 135 GOP-held House and Senate seats. Using a technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification (aka “Mr. P”), Elliott estimated Trump’s approval rating in every congressional district and state. The results: Fully half of all Republicans in Congress sit in districts or states where Trump’s approval is negative. At least 30 GOP-held House seats show Trump more than 10 points underwater — more than enough to flip the chamber. And in every competitive Democratic-held seat Republicans hope to pick up, Trump is underwater there, too.
Americans overwhelmingly said last month that they want a ceasefire with Iran — but that doesn’t mean they’ll support this one. Our March Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll found 60% of Americans favored pursuing a ceasefire and negotiations with Iran, versus just 29% who wanted to continue military operations. Only 60% of Republicans back the war — a significant defection from a president who normally commands 90%+ within his own party. Meanwhile, prominent MAGA figures including Tucker Carlson, Alex Jones, and Marjorie Taylor Greene, openly discussed invoking the 25th Amendment and impeachment after Trump’s social media posts over Easter weekend.
If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com. We record the podcast live every Thursday at 2:00 PM Eastern. We always discuss a few pre-planned topics and then answer questions submitted live by viewers.
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