In this week’s first-ever live, in-person recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast — at the America Votes Summit in Washington, D.C. — Elliott and David debut exclusive new polling on the midterms, dig into what voters actually dislike about the Democratic Party, and explain why none of this changes the trajectory of a brutal midterm for Republicans (but it could matter for 2028 and beyond).
Here are the big takeaways:
Trump’s numbers keep getting worse, and Democrats hold a commanding generic ballot lead. Our April Strength in Numbers/Verasight survey finds Trump’s approval at an all-time low of 35.5%, and Democrats ahead in the generic ballot by 7 points. Combined with special election overperformances averaging D+13 and the historical pattern of the out-party gaining roughly five more points on the generic ballot between April and November, Elliott and David argue Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to retake the House, with the Senate a genuine toss-up.
Yet the Democratic brand is at a historic low. The Democratic Party’s net favorability is the worst it’s been since the post-9/11 rally for Republicans. Our poll asks voters to name, in their own describe, in their own words, something the Democrats have done recently that they dislike. Voters across party lines call Democrats “weak,” criticize their leadership, and say they lack a clear message. 46% of Democrats in the poll cited the party’s generic weakness against Trump or caving to Republicans on the recent government shutdowns as their top issue with the party.
But electoral implications are mixed. Historically, there’s zero correlation between party favorability ratings a year before the midterms and actual electoral performance. In 2014, Democrats had a huge favorability advantage and got destroyed. And in this poll, only 1% of self-identified Democrats say they’re so unhappy they won’t vote, while 31% say they’ll vote Democratic despite being dissatisfied with the party.
And swing voters don’t want Democrats to generically “moderate” their brand — they want someone who gets them. When we asked U.S. adults in open-ended questions last November what they want from a political party, roughly half of Americans expressed generic criticism of both political parties, stated something about everyday economic life getting to expensive, or wanted support for entitlements like Medicare and Social Security spending. Most voters just want a party that has a plan to make everyday life less of a struggle.
Capitulation is both not a strategy and exacerbates the Democrats’ brand issues. When Democrats leaned into opposition to mass deportations in the spring and summer of 2025, Trump’s numbers on immigration dropped sharply — and so did the GOP’s favorability advantage. The biggest risk for Democrats isn’t being perceived as extreme (our data show its Republicans who are docked on this front), it’s failing to show everyday Americans that it cares about them and will fight for them.
One note if you’re watching the video recording: a technical glitch on our end caused the video of this recording to freeze at around the one hour mark, but you can still head the audio throughout the podcast and the feed will resume after a few minutes.
If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com. We record the podcast live every Thursday at 2:00 PM Eastern. We always discuss a few pre-planned topics and then answer questions submitted live by viewers.
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You can also read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so:
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