Venezuela polling update: Republicans fall in line on comparatively unpopular action
Your weekly political data roundup for January 11, 2026.
Dear readers,
This is my weekly roundup of new political data published over the last seven days.
Last week: It was another chaotic week in Donald Trump's second term. The two standout events are the killing of an unarmed mother by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in Minneapolis on Wednesday, and the backlash to it, and the evolving situation with Venezuela. I covered public opinion toward ICE on Friday, and I’m sure there will be more to write about soon, so in this week’s lead slot, let’s look at how public opinion about Venezuela has changed over the last week.
On deck this week: A Tuesday Deep Dive responding to a reader’s question about when the generic ballot becomes predictive of election outcomes, a compilation of your questions you want me to poll about this year, and a Friday post reacting to the week’s news.
Let’s dig into the post-Maduro-snatching polling on Venezuela, then the usual list of links.
I. Venezuela update: Republicans are falling in line
Last Sunday, I wrote that Americans broadly opposed the invasion of Venezuela, but predicted that Republican voters would likely “fall in line now that the operation” had happened. That’s exactly what new data shows.
New polling from YouGov/The Economist (Jan. 2-5) and a standalone YouGov poll (Jan. 5-6) shows Republican support for using military force to overthrow Maduro jumped 22 points in two weeks — from 44% to 66%. Meanwhile, the share of Republicans saying Trump should seek congressional authorization fell 19 points, from 58% to 39%.
This is textbook “follow the leader“ dynamics. As political scientist Seth Masket noted after the Maduro capture, voters tend to update their foreign policy views toward the actions taken by their party’s leaders. In this case, for Republicans, that’s Trump. We saw the same increase in GOP support for bombing Iran after Trump did so last Summer.
Axios had a good visual showing this follow-the-leader effect in the polls, comparing YouGov’s numbers over the past six months (note: I think they are comparing standalone YouGov polls to each other, not using any Economist data):
But note that overall public opinion hasn’t moved much. Americans still oppose military action 44% to 33%, per YouGov/The Economist data, and 49% disapprove of Trump’s handling of Venezuela vs 32% who approve. And support for “using military force to invade Venezuela” is just 36%, vs 51% who oppose.
There is some disagreement among pollsters over how people feel toward Venezuela, to be sure. The Washington Post found Americans split 40% approve to 42% disapprove on the operation, with nearly 1 in 5 unsure. CBS News/YouGov (Jan 5-7) found the public split 48 to 52 percent opposed, but offered no “not sure” option.
What I like about the CBS News poll is that is breaks out opinion based on what people hear the U.S. goals are. Most Americans believe the administration is trying to get access to Venezuela’s oil and expand U.S. power in the region — but this is actually the less popular reason to get involved. This reminds me of tariffs, where Trump has very publicly taken an unpopular stance on a high-profile issue.
The CBS poll also found that most Americans oppose further military action if Venezuela doesn’t cooperate with U.S. interests. And that standalone YouGov poll found 55% of U.S. adults say Trump should have asked Congress for authorization first, and 43% say the action was illegal (31% say legal).
The question now is whether Trump can actually achieve his stated goals when Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has refused to cooperate and the American public remains opposed to longer-term involvement. If the is a longer-term entanglement, those newly-supportive Republicans may start to waver.
Historical comparison: A relatively unpopular invasion
What’s striking about Venezuela is how weak the initial approval is compared to past military actions. When the Iraq War began in March 2003, Gallup found 72% of Americans approved of the decision to go to war — up from the high 50s in the weeks before. And when Trump authorized a strike in 2020 that killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani, an ABC News/Washington Post poll found 53% approved of it.
Also consider that polls taken just after military action tend to show the ceiling in support, not the floor. Iraq started at 76% and eventually cratered to below 40%. Soleimani was a one-off strike with no occupation to sour opinion. Public opinion on Venezuela is basically starting where Iraq ended, and that’s before a longer-term entanglement would give Americans the time to digest the reasons for the conflict, which they already say they would disapprove of.
II. What I published at Strength In Numbers last week
Here’s last Sunday’s data roundup, looking at public opinion on military action in Venezuela before the raid took place:
On Tuesday, I wrote that midterms are a backlash, not a referendum: The most important variable predicting historical midterms is which party is in charge, not how they’re doing. Republicans wouldn’t necessarily get a boost if the economy recovers.
I also wrote this short piece reflecting on the Jan. 6 insurrection:
Friday’s Chart of the Week looks at ICE favorability, which has collapsed over the past year. 42% now support abolishing the agency — an all-time high:
Support for abolishing ICE hits a a new high
This is my free Chart of the Week — a data-driven look at what’s happening in American politics right now. If you find this useful, consider becoming a paid subscriber to get Tuesday’s premium Deep Dive and support independent polling and political journalism.
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III. Even more numbers!
DecisionDesk HQ shows Democrats have caught Republicans in party favorability, as the left flank of the party consolidates around the brand ahead of the midterms.
The Atlantic on Trump’s new foreign policy doctrine: The Fuck-Around-and-Find-Out Presidency —
U.S. military action in Venezuela remains unpopular but Republican support has risen —
Reuters/Ipsos finds that a third of Americans support U.S. strike on Venezuela
What Americans think about the situation in Venezuela, according to recent polls — AP’s roundup of polling on the conflict
Natalie Jackson tells us where opinion on Trump and Republicans stands as we start 2026
WSJ on the tariff fallout in jobs growth: U.S. Has Lost Manufacturing Jobs Every Month Since ‘Liberation Day’
The New Year health-insurance shock facing millions of Americans — The Economist on the impact of ACA premiums expiring (very good IMO)
Something from 2025 that I just found: NYT Opinion: Trump’s First Year Back, in 10 Charts
The American Communities Project asks, “What Do Americans Know About Trump 2.0?” A Lot.
I think “A lot” is subjective here. E.g., 52% know that ICE has detained U.S. citizens. I think that’s actually pretty low!
So maybe we can say knowledge is “high” in a relative sense (many questions get much worse results) but low in absolute terms.
Laura Belin on the Iowa special election: Four takeaways from Renee Hardman’s big win
CNN shows us that most Americans don’t think Trump or Democratic leaders are listening to them, and Here’s What Americans would tell them if they could
Here’s a cool new tool for exploring state policy liberalism over time: Dynamic Democracy
IV. Polling update
The Strength In Numbers polling averages have moved to a new webpage at fiftyplusone.news, a website purely for poll-tracking that I’ve set up with my friends. Some averages, like my average of Trump’s approval rating on individual issues, remain on the data portal but will be moved to the new site soon.
Trump’s net job approval is -16.3, basically where he has been for the past month
The generic ballot is D+4.6, a new high for the Democrats.
Read the latest polls and averages
Over at the data hub, I have updated the graph that compares Trump’s approval to previous presidents, and the chart of Trump’s issue-by-issue rating:
And that’s it for this week! Thanks for reading. Strength In Numbers will be back in your inbox on Tuesday!
Got more for next week? Email your links or add to the comments below!
"Last Sunday, I wrote that Americans broadly opposed the invasion of Venezuela, but predicted that Republican voters would likely “fall in line now that the operation” now that Trump had taken an action. That’s exactly what’s happened.": need's editing before I can share, please
You note “if the occupation drags on”, but of course there isn’t an occupation at the moment, at least not overt boots on the ground. I don’t think people are as agitated about wasting m/billions of dollars on naval operations, even if they should be. Trump, as always, is spewing a lot of disturbing words, but even his biggest supporters know that nearly all of what he says is nonsense.
I’m curious if there’s been polling about what really gets people to turn on an operation. Lives, cost, lack of progress, lack of exciting TV footage? I think they’re mostly numb to the cost. It’s interesting what you said about starting at the ceiling. In this case, there may be very little difference between that and the floor, considering his extremely loyal base, regardless of what he does from here.