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Kotzsu's avatar
2hEdited

Important to track, for sure. The take inside the epistemic beltway bubble is that impeachment only strengthened Trump, so it's pointless to try again -OR- impeachment is regrettably inevitable and he will definitely be acquitted, so cooler heads ought to focus on limiting damage/harm and picking the "right" impeachment battle.

IMHO, both these takes are wrong; polling like this provides some more evidence of that. Interested to see if support softens if we somehow escape Iran.

Side note - everyone from the fin bros of WallStreetBets to beltway politicos seem to be discounting the coming oil shock. Every serious person I've heard discuss this thinks we're in for a lot of economic disruption. Some disruption is already inevitable, but the longer the war goes on with the Strait of Hormuz closed, the more and more catastrophic it will become. The short-term Trump trade or TACO trade is keying off the weekend warrior motions and the renewed ceasefire, but the long-term outlook gets worse every day the strait remains closed. For polling purposes, if the straight remains closed much longer, I think we're about to see how durable that floor of 20-30% of "strong support," ride-or-die MAGA base voters really is.

Joel Rosenfield's avatar

There shouldn't be an impeachment effort unless/until at least 75-80 senators are on board. Otherwise, it's a distraction. The fact that the number seeking impeachment only match previous failed attempts shows this.

On the other hand, impeaching cabinet members who can reasonably shown to have committed high crimes and misdemeanors -- sure.

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