On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David briefly revisit Elliott’s hypotheses on why economic vibes are still so sour before turning to the alarming speed at which Republican-led states are moving to redraw their congressional maps in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Callais decision last week.
Here are the big takeaways:
The economic vibes may not be “normal” again until 2029 at the earliest — and that’s the optimistic scenario. Consumer sentiment is at its lowest level in the 60+ year history of the University of Michigan’s survey. Our model says the main (but not only) culprit is “excess prices”: Household goods cost roughly 15% more than they would have under the pre-2020 trend of 2% inflation, and people haven’t yet forgotten. If inflation returns to ~2.7%, sentiment recovers to its historical median around April 2029. If inflation stays at 3.5% or higher (as Trump’s tariffs, deportations, and the Iran war suggest it might), sentiment may take decades to recover to pre-COVID levels. An anecdote from a reader in Austria suggests it took residents about eight years to stop complaining about euro prices after the country switched its currency from the schilling, which lines up eerily well with our 2029–2030 projection.
Republican states are dismantling Black voting districts at breakneck speed after Callais. One week after the Supreme Court gutted the Voting Rights Act, the dominoes are already falling. Louisiana’s governor canceled the state’s primaries by invoking a statute normally deployed after hurricanes; Alabama is passing a law to allow do-over primaries so it can erase the Black-majority district created in 2024; and Tennessee just released a map that surgically splits Memphis into three almost equal pieces, turning one majority-Black district into three Trump+20 white districts. Combined with potential moves elsewhere throughout the South, Republicans could net 13–15 seats from racial gerrymandering alone—and in time for the 2026 elections.
We’re in a redistricting doom loop, and the only way out is structural electoral reform. America has a severe racial and partisan gerrymandering problem. Once one party abandons fairness, the other has to respond — and it’s a race to the bottom that shafts us, the voters. Elliott coded a computer redistricting simulator to show just how easily a 55-45 state can be turned into 80% one-party representation when partisan maximization replaces fair drawing. The Roberts Court has now ruled four times that partisan gerrymandering isn’t justiciable, and Republicans in Congress have derailed Democratic attempts at a remedy.
Elliott vouches for a system of proportional representation, arguing that America’s district-based system was built for an era without parties and is no longer fit for purpose.
If you value this work and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions support this podcast, the newsletter, and the time it takes to do this kind of data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our live streams, so you can directly shape the conversations we’re having on the podcast.
If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com. We record the podcast live every Thursday at 2:00 PM Eastern. We always discuss a few pre-planned topics and then answer questions submitted live by viewers.
You can also subscribe to us on your favorite podcast app to listen on your own time. And if you do listen via one of those apps, please drop us a five-star rating and review if you feel we’ve earned it — it really helps people discover the show!
A reminder that paid subscribers to Strength In Numbers get to participate in our live Q&A!
You can also read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so:
If you’re a reader of Strength in Numbers and haven’t yet subscribed to David’s newsletter, head to the-downballot.com.
And if you’re coming from David’s site, subscribe here to get the numbers behind the news.
