In this conversation, Elliott is joined by David Nir, publisher of The Downballot, to take stock of Donald Trump’s polling numbers as he passes one year in office. We dig into the fresh January Strength In Numbers/Verasight polling data, talk about Elliott’s new project mapping public opinion at the local level, check in on Democratic strategy regarding immigration and immigration enforcement, and Trump’s “jokes” about canceling the 2026 midterms.
We talked about:
Trump’s polling collapse. Just 40% of Americans approve of his job performance, while 58% disapprove — a net -18 rating. Nearly half the country strongly disapproves. This is not a president with any sort of mandate to lead.
The highest-resolution map of Trump approval ever made. Using 12,000 interviews from our monthly polls, I built a sub-county-level interactive map showing Trump’s approval across the country. You can see what your neighborhood thinks of the president. (Bonus points for anyone who guesses the first- and second-most anti-Trump PUMAs in the country without looking.)
The immigration polling myth. Pundits say immigration is Trump’s strong suit, and Democrats should avoid pushing on the issue, or their numbers will sink. This has been the dominant strategy advice in Washington since 2024. The data disagree. In the new Strength In Numbers poll, Trump’s approval on deportations is -12, while border security is +4 — a 16-point gap. We are seeing the impacts on public opinion of Americans distinguishing between securing the border and ICE raids in their communities.
Why Trump can’t cancel the midterms. We talked through the distributed structure of U.S. elections and why — despite his authoritarian instincts and desires — President Trump cannot stop the midterms from happening in November. But he can disrupt them, and the fact that he jokes about it is disturbing enough. We are in the “tail outcomes” phase for U.S. democracy, and nobody can predict how this will end.
Plus: Democrats are still running above baseline in special elections. And more.
If you missed our livestream, you can watch it by clicking above.
If you’re a reader of Strength in Numbers and haven’t yet subscribed to David’s newsletter, head to the-downballot.com. And if you’re coming from David’s audience, subscribe here to get the numbers behind the news!
