On this week's Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott and David unpack the Supreme Court's decision in Louisiana v. Callais and explain what it means for the midterms and beyond. Then Elliott pushes back on a trendy take that Democrats' "only" 7–8 point generic ballot lead, despite Trump's –22 net approval, proves the party is fundamentally misaligned with voters on cultural issues. Here are the big takeaways:
Republicans could redraw ~10-15 seats because of the Callais decision. Plaintiffs in racial gerrymandering cases now have to prove intentional discrimination, which is nearly impossible since states can just say they drew maps for partisan reasons. Eight Southern states hold at least a dozen VRA-protected districts that Republicans can now dismantle, with Louisiana already racing to redraw its map before 2026.
The U.S. is increasingly governed by minority rule, and Callais is the latest symptom. Democrats have won the effective popular vote for the Senate in every cycle but one since 1992, yet two popular-vote-losing presidents went on to stack the Court with justices confirmed by a minority-elected Senate that have decided cases decisively against the popular majority on dozens of key cases. That Court just trashed legislation 67% of voters say is still needed — and 65% of voters now support Supreme Court term limits.
The “Democrats should be up 20 points” narrative is built on a misunderstanding of the data, and the claimed cause (crime and social issues) is wrong. Our investigation of the Trump disapprovers in the Strength In Numbers poll finds that most disapprovers who have not committed to voting Democratic on the generic ballot are in fact “closeted partisans” — voters who say they identify as Republicans and are strong conservatives. Accounting for that, the realistic ceiling for Democrats is around D+13, not D+20; treating every Trump disapprover as a winnable Democratic vote is a misread of the data. Additionally: only 3% of persuadable Trump-disapprovers name crime as their top issue, while 66% cite the economy, prices, or health care — and most say they don’t even know which party to trust on those issues.
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