In this week’s live recording of the Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott flies solo (David’s on vacation — he’ll be back next week) for a special “chart-a-rama” episode breaking down the “rally around the flag” effect in presidential approval polls, and why Trump isn’t getting one. Elliott also covers a bad use of polling in a Washington Post article about the GOP’s midterm prospects.
Here are the big takeaways:
Trump is getting no rally-around-the-flag bounce — and probably never will. Presidents historically see approval bumps after military crises. Bush Sr. got a 29-point bounce from the Gulf War. FDR got nearly 20 points after Pearl Harbor. Bush Jr. gained after both Afghanistan and Iraq. But Trump’s approval is stuck at 39 - 40 percent, completely unchanged since the U.S. struck Iran on February 28.
I went through the polling history and identified five conditions a president needs for a rally. Trump’s not getting a bounce because he’s missing all five conditions.A bad argument about Trump and the midterms. A Washington Post op-ed by Henry Olson argued that because Trump’s approval is about two points higher among likely voters than among all adults, Republicans could outperform midterm expectations. The problem with this reasoning is that the relationship between approval ratings and midterm outcomes is weak at best, and not causal. I plugged Olsen’s numbers into a historical model of presidential approval and midterm seat losses, and the difference between minus-19 and minus-17 net approval is the difference between losing 37 seats and losing 36. That’s not a the silver lining he suggests.
Rising gas prices will likely make the reaction to Iran worse. A viewer asked whether rising gas prices from the Iran war would further erode public support. Short answer: yes. Trump was elected on two promises — lower prices and ending foreign wars — and this war violates both. Gas is already up about a dollar, and trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz (through which 20% of global trade flows) will push grocery prices up too. About 80-85% of hardcore MAGA voters still back the war, but independents and soft Republicans who lent Trump their votes for economic relief are the ones most likely to peel off.
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