I have published four long articles this week — and done approximately one trillion interviews about the primary polls in Wisconsin and elsewhere (and recording for NPR’s Weekend Edition today) — and am quite tired. Of course, it’s a privilege to be able to write 3,000 words about weighting polling microdata and make a living doing so, but sometimes you run out of gas.
That’s just to say there will be no standalone Friday column this week. Instead, I’m sharing some graphs that got left out of my Tuesday piece on the anti-system vs left-right divide within the Democratic Party right now.
These charts do a good bit of myth-busting about the role age is playing in the party’s ideological divide right now. Reading news coverage of the recent wins for Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan or DSA candidates in New York and Denver, you’d get the impression that only young Democrats support this new wing of the party. El-Sayed’s win in particular generated headlines crediting his young base for his victory. Look out, it’s a youthhhhhhquaaaaaaake!
But if you look at ratings for key left-leaning figures in our June Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll, age is not so predictive after all. While favorability rating is not the same as primary vote choice, it tells us a lot about the direction of the party and appetite for new, fresh, urgent thinking.
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Older Democrats like Mamdani almost as much as young Democrats
According to our survey, older Democrats rate Zohran Mamdani at about 72 on the 0-100 “feeling thermometer” scale.
Young Democrats are at 76 — a difference the poll can’t distinguish from zero.
Young Democrats, however, are sharply more critical of their party. Mamdani significantly out-polls the party brand and its congressional leadership among young respondents — not because under-30s (a category I sadly recently passed out of) rate lefty Dems better, but because they rate the “establishment” worse:
And it’s not just Mamdani. Young Democrats rate the party’s other left-wing figures about the same as older Democrats do — but they rate the party’s current management much colder. Schumer (34) and Jeffries (44) are the only figures under-30 Democrats put below the midpoint of the scale.
Finally, a point about absolute differences. The age gradient is strong. But if you compare feeling thermometer ratings for Mamdani and AOC vs Schumer and Jeffries, not one group of Democratic voters prefers the leadership:
This may sound pedantic, but there is a big difference between “only young people like left candidates” and “young people are voting left because they are more likely to hate the Democratic Party.” Remember, among self-described moderate and conservative Democrats, Bernie Sanders rates higher than any other current party figure we tested — Obama excepted:
The generational split in the Democratic electorate isn’t really about who likes Mamdani or AOC — Democrats of most ages do, more or less. It’s about who’s fed up with the leaders currently running the party. And that’s an anti-system thing, as much as or more than it is an ideology thing.
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I’m 75 and an old-school liberal; count me in among those that like the younger, lefty candidates just fine. I’m fed up with Schumer but willing to let Jeffries show me he knows how to fight.
The bottom line is that whoever runs for office while we're stuck with the monumentally corrupt and incompetent kakistocracy must DELIVER relief to the beleaguered middle class. Because Fatso will still be in office till 2028, the best Dems can do is to get the ball rolling for lowering prices (overturn the tariffs), affordability (renew ACA subsidies, reverse SNAP and Medicaid cuts, and start talking about Medicare for all), and reducing income inequality/budget deficits by removing the FICA cap and raising taxes on corporations and capital gains. If they could come up with a subsidy or tax credit for first-time home buyers, that would also raise chances of a Dem trifecta in 2028.
Meanwhile, Trump will veto all that legislation and billionaires will pour money into "anti-socialism" campaigns, so it will be a rough ride.
But Trump is so nakedly corrupt and out of touch with ordinary Americans' needs, that there is a good chance people will vote for politicians who deliver programs that help the middle- and working-class get their heads above water. And once any of these policies become permanent, they will become impossible to dislodge, just like Medicare and Social Security, which were decried as "socialism!!!" back in the day but now are deeply embedded in our culture as necessary entitlements.