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These 2024 Trump voters no longer admit to voting for him
Poll respondents who change their recalled vote from Trump to Harris (or not voting) largely disapprove of Trump — and that could be skewing polls
Oct 22
•
G. Elliott Morris
165
18
25
Republicans are skipping early voting. Will they show up on Election Day?
In North Carolina, Democrats have cast 70% of the two parties' early ballots, the most lopsided split at this point since at least 2006.
Oct 20
•
G. Elliott Morris
225
12
39
2026 early vote live blog
A regularly updating post for early voting data and analysis, Strength In Numbers style!
Oct 13
•
G. Elliott Morris
292
44
57
Join our private pre-election briefing for Founding Members!
The Downballot and Strength In Numbers join forces to make sense of the midterms
Oct 8
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
David Nir
34
8
If the polls end up missing, this may have been our early warning sign
“Low-effort” survey respondents vote very differently than other poll-takers, and that could be biasing polls by up to 3.5 points against
Oct 6
•
G. Elliott Morris
209
54
40
Iran, prices, ICE, and Epstein are the biggest stories of 2026
In a new database of news headlines stretching back to 2016, I show Trump's midterm convention failed to change news agendas
Sep 28
•
G. Elliott Morris
156
10
28
Why polls might be underestimating *Democrats*, not Republicans
Potential bias in how voters recall voting in 2024 costs Democrats about a point of support. Surveys of registered voters might also underestimate the…
Sep 15
•
G. Elliott Morris
168
8
28
The flawed thinking behind “Trumpapalooza”
The president thinks he can activate lower-turnout voters who like his agenda. But polls show his former supporters oppose his key policies, and don’t…
Sep 10
•
G. Elliott Morris
189
12
26
All polls are models now
Traditional polling is dead. Pollsters need to do a better job communicating about all the ways potential error enters their work.
Sep 9
•
G. Elliott Morris
146
9
36
What voters really mean when they say the Democrats should "fight" more
81% of Democrats say their party should focus on ending Trump's corruption, while 54% want it to prioritize affordability. In open-text response they…
Sep 1
•
G. Elliott Morris
204
47
55
Is Abdul El-Sayed going to lose Michigan?
The Democratic nominee is running behind expectations, and everyone thinks they know why. But it's early — and I think we all know a lot less than we…
Aug 18
•
G. Elliott Morris
185
112
35
Voters say the political system needs big changes — and that's driving Democratic gains for 2026
Among moderates and conservatives who say they want "major, disruptive change" in politics, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 50 points
Aug 11
•
G. Elliott Morris
136
20
33
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