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What can we learn from a close loss?
Kat Abughazaleh didn't win the IL-09 primary. But a 4-point loss may still tell us something important about the direction of the Democratic Party.
Mar 18
•
G. Elliott Morris
160
20
32
Trump has lost working-class whites
New race-by-income data shows Trump's approval has cratered among the working-class voters he gained in 2024. The war in Iran underscores his challenges
Mar 17
•
G. Elliott Morris
231
20
53
How Trump's voters feel about him now, by demographic group
20% of young, non-white, and lower-income Trump voters now say they disapprove of how he's handling his job as president
Mar 10
•
G. Elliott Morris
121
13
24
Six data-driven reasons Texas could actually go blue in 2026
Democratic candidate James Talarico might be the best chance in recent history to flip a U.S. Senate seat Republicans have held for 65 years
Mar 4
•
G. Elliott Morris
312
26
61
How you word a poll question can have a large impact on results
Our new poll finds question wording can swing opinion by 20+ points on immigration, the budget, and transgender rights. That's a problem for people who…
Mar 3
•
G. Elliott Morris
166
45
48
Ahead of State of the Union, Trump's approval falls to new low of 37%
The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats leading on the generic ballot by 10 points among registered voters, and Trump approval on…
Feb 24
•
G. Elliott Morris
206
11
48
Meet America’s new swing voter: The anti-system voter. (Or: Why Democrats should think through nominating AOC in 2028)
A new paper finds anti-system sentiment — not left-right ideology — decided the 2016 and 2024 elections
Feb 18
•
G. Elliott Morris
158
67
33
The less voters knew, the more they liked Trump in 2024. Not anymore
The least-engaged Americans have swung 25 points against him since 2024 — about twice the shift among everyone else. Trump has flattened the engagement…
Feb 12
•
G. Elliott Morris
299
25
84
The election that broke Democratic Party strategy
Bill Clinton's victory in 1992 is supposed to prove that Democrats win when they move to the center. The data tells a different story
Feb 10
•
G. Elliott Morris
170
27
40
More evidence that a large share of "moderates" are non-ideological
A reader replicated my analysis of political ideology using alternative data
Feb 3
•
G. Elliott Morris
160
20
32
New poll: Trump loses ground on immigration; Dems lead 2026 House vote by 8 points
The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats start 2026 with their biggest lead yet on the 2026 House vote, while Trump approval sinks on…
Jan 21
•
G. Elliott Morris
182
19
39
Trump has made ICE a 70-30 issue — for Democrats
By using brutal force in public, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration policy. Will they take it?
Jan 15
•
G. Elliott Morris
364
35
101
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