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New poll: Trump loses ground on immigration; Dems lead 2026 House vote by 8 points

The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats start 2026 with their biggest lead yet on the 2026 House vote, while Trump approval sinks on…

Jan 21 • G. Elliott Morris

Trump has made ICE a 70-30 issue — for Democrats

By using brutal force in public, ICE has given Democrats a chance to change how voters think about immigration policy. Will they take it?

Jan 15 • G. Elliott Morris

How early is too early to look at midterm polls?

Early generic ballot polls are directionally useful, but the party out of power historically gains ground between now and November

Jan 13 • G. Elliott Morris

Midterms are a backlash, not a referendum

The best predictor of historical midterm election outcomes is which party is in power, not its performance

Jan 6 • G. Elliott Morris

Americans do not want war with Venezuela

Military intervention in the country is even more unpopular than Trump’s tariffs and health care cuts

Jan 4 • G. Elliott Morris

What your news diet says about your politics

Breaking down Trump's approval and 2026 midterms vote by Americans' primary news source

Jan 2 • G. Elliott Morris

The high cost of rolling over on immigration

What Matt Yglesias, Hakeem Jeffries, and Keir Starmer got wrong about the politics of immigration

Dec 16, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris

How cable news fueled the culture war and broke U.S. politics

News organizations, and not just Fox News, focus on inflammatory stories, polarizing voters and tilting political agendas to the right

Dec 9, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris

Eight charts that explain why "affordability" is suddenly everywhere

All politics is affordability now

Dec 2, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris

How can we be sure changes in polls reflect real changes in opinion?

A technical response to a comment on last Friday's chart about Democrats' generic ballot polling

Nov 28, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris

What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries?

Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is…

Nov 25, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris

The hidden axis: the left-right spectrum has a non-ideology problem

Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms…

Nov 20, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris

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