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Democrats now have to win the House vote by 4 points due to Republican gerrymandering
A new analysis by Strength In Numbers reveals the impacts of mid-decade and post-VRA redistricting by Republicans, with the now-missing Democratic…
9 hrs ago
•
G. Elliott Morris
94
10
20
The simple statistical error Republican Supreme Court justices used to gut the VRA
The Court says vote dilution can be proven only after "controlling" racial polarization for partisan polarization. This is a nonsensical and impossible…
May 8
•
G. Elliott Morris
225
13
84
This is why Republicans won't break with Trump on policy
Most are from uncompetitive districts or simply ignore public opinion, and Tuesday's primary wins for Trump's allies only incentivize further…
May 6
•
G. Elliott Morris
167
26
33
It'll be years before Americans get used to higher prices — and politicians can't just wait it out
Consumers will eventually adjust, but in the meantime, they'll keep punishing leaders who don't act
May 5
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
David Nir
130
21
36
No, higher turnout won’t fix the Republicans' midterms problem
The GOP is manufacturing its own base turnout fantasy to avoid acknowledging the real reason it's struggling in 2026: Voters don't like Trump's agenda!
Apr 28
•
G. Elliott Morris
204
11
48
Here’s a model of consumer sentiment that doesn’t suck
On the question of why Americans are so glum, the answer is still (mostly) the prices, stupid. But you have to know where to look
Apr 17
•
G. Elliott Morris
112
29
31
It's the prices, stupid
Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low because prices are at an all-time high. The UMich index isn't broken, popular government data just offer an…
Apr 14
•
G. Elliott Morris
234
35
54
Only 8% of "moderates" actually want moderation
Two new studies reveal very few voters want a genuinely centrist political party — and moderation's electoral payoff is smaller, riskier, and less…
Apr 7
•
G. Elliott Morris
144
25
44
Trump is 20+ points underwater. So why aren't Democrats up 20 for the midterms?
Part of the answer is that people are comparing different electorates. But many softer Trump disapprovers still aren't ready to vote Democratic
Apr 1
•
G. Elliott Morris
133
22
32
What can we learn from a close loss?
Kat Abughazaleh didn't win the IL-09 primary. But a 4-point loss may still tell us something important about the direction of the Democratic Party.
Mar 18
•
G. Elliott Morris
160
20
32
Trump has lost working-class whites
New race-by-income data shows Trump's approval has cratered among the working-class voters he gained in 2024. The war in Iran underscores his challenges
Mar 17
•
G. Elliott Morris
236
20
54
How Trump's voters feel about him now, by demographic group
20% of young, non-white, and lower-income Trump voters now say they disapprove of how he's handling his job as president
Mar 10
•
G. Elliott Morris
121
12
24
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