Americans voted for Trump, but never supported Trumpism
Donald Trump's policies have always been less popular than his promises
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A new poll from the Pew Research Center out this week finds that 37% of Americans approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president, but only 27% say they support “most” or “all” of his policies.
This reminded me of an article I wrote at FiveThirtyEight (RIP) in Feb. 2025 titled “Americans voted for Trump, but don’t support his agenda.” Since I wrote that piece, according to Pew, the percentage of adults who support most or all of Trump’s policies has fallen eight points, including a nine-point drop among Republicans. Now, just a bare majority of Trump’s own party says they support all or most of his plans and policies.
Pew is not the only pollster to find a difference between support for Trump in general and support for his policies. Earlier this month, CBS News found that 50% of adults say they approve of what Trump is “trying to accomplish” on immigration, while only 37% approve of “how he’s going about it” (a 13-point gap). YouGov this week found the same pattern: 51% say they support Trump’s goals on immigration policy, but only 27% support both the goals and his implementation (a 24-point gap).
On Immigration and Customs Enforcement in general, a new Fox News survey this week found 59% of voters now say immigration enforcement has been “too aggressive,” similar to YouGov’s 60%. But Americans haven’t turned against the idea of immigration enforcement. YouGov found 87% still support deporting immigrants who committed violent crimes. The problem is everything else: only 22% support deporting long-term residents with no criminal record, only 21% for parents of U.S. citizen children, only 17% for people who came as children. (Here’s a piece from me on similar numbers from last April.)
Across polls, there is a notable difference between what Americans say they support in general and what they support in practice. Historically, political scientists have noticed a similar gap between an individual’s “symbolic” and “operational” ideology.
Today’s Chart of the Week: Americans voted for Trump, but never supported Trumpism.
I. Governing requires policy, not just symbols
Christopher Ellis and James Stimson documented this phenomenon in their 2012 book Ideology in America. Ellis and Stimson find Americans like the idea of limited government, law and order, traditional values, etc. But when you ask about specific programs and policies, they generally want the government to do more, not less, and lean more to the left than the right. And hence many Americans wanted Trump’s deportations in general, but oppose the operational policy he is implementing.
If you’re a rational thinker or political obsessive, you might think this is hypocritical. But the reality is that most people are not thinking about policy preferences all day long. They respond to symbols and abstractions and signals from parties and their social networks, not just statements from candidates about what policies they will support. So things like “deport everyone here illegally!” polls well but “send out thousands of federal agents to arrest everyone and disappear them” doesn’t.
Examples of this are everywhere. On abortion, “pro-life” as an identity polls reasonably well. But specific restrictions — 6-week bans, no exceptions for rape, criminalizing women — poll terribly. On tariffs, “protecting American jobs” sounds good, but then prices rise and support collapses. And in the classic Ellis and Stimson example, majorities say they want “smaller government,” but when you ask about specific programs — Medicare, Social Security, education, veterans — support for cuts disappears.
The ICE case is another textbook example. Abstract support for “mass deportations” remained strong through 2024 and into early 2025. But as enforcement became visible — raids in schools, churches, hospitals; American citizens detained — the operational reality collided with the symbolic appeal.
II. Trumpism will never be popular as popular as Trump
To be clear, there is utility in being the party with a symbolic edge on the issues. A new poll from Reuters/Ipsos found this week that 37% of adults prefer Republicans on immigration, vs. 32% for Democrats, even while Trump’s immigration enforcement policies are severely unpopular.
But when voters encounter a policy they don’t approve of in the real world, that provides an opportunity for the other party to reduce their advantage.
On immigration, it was obvious from early in Trump’s presidency that his unpopular policies would drag down his approval and trust metrics over time. Every video of dozens of agents swarming an apartment building, every citizen wrongly detained or legal resident wrongly deported, every lie about a shooting caught on camera reinforces the reality of an issue.
And this has been the reality for Trump since 2015. As soon as he implements a policy from his campaign, voters balk. Americans like the idea of Trump’s agenda more than the reality of it. The border wall was exciting until it meant seizing ranchers’ land. “Drain the swamp” resonated until it meant firing inspectors general. “America First” sounded strong until allies started hedging and supply chains fractured.
This is the fundamental paradox of Trumpism: it is a governing philosophy built entirely on symbols, confronting a world that runs on policy. Trump won in 2024 not because Americans wanted what he was selling, but because voters wanted what they thought he was selling — lower prices, a “secure border,” a harm-free return for manufacturing jobs.
But you can’t govern on vibes forever. Eventually, you have to implement policies. And when the policies are significantly less popular than the symbols, the average Trump voter discovers they were never really on board with MAGA after all.
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“Americans voted for Trump, but don’t support his agenda.”
Peak stupidity
An interesting take. However, in order to vote for Trump in 2016, Trump voters either had to willfully ignore porn star hush money, blatant racism, and a history of failed casinos and unpaid contractors, or just be blind to the news. To vote for Trump in 2024, Trump voters had to EMBRACE the racism and jury findings of sexual assault and insurrection and conviction for fraud. There is no way they "weren't aware" of followers defecating on the floor of the Capitol Building. They voted for white male privilege over the Black lady. They chose this. It's not an accident that BEFORE he was elected, I wrote "Don't You Dare Call It Trumpism," predicting excuse-making for Trump voters months before he was elected. You can't separate the vibe from the policies because Trumpism has been the policy of the Republican base since 1964, at least. https://crooksandliars.com/2016/07/dont-you-dare-call-it-trump-ism