Democrats have the leverage in the shutdown over ICE
A majority of voters supports funding TSA and FEMA while conditioning additional ICE money on reforms
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security will run out of funding at 11:59 PM tonight, Feb. 13, 2026. While some agencies, including Immigration and Customs Enforcement, remain funded thanks to provisions in the GOP spending bill passed last summer, others — including the TSA, FEMA, and Coast Guard — can only rely on emergency surpluses until they run out. These won’t get any additional funds until Congress and the president agree on a new budget.
Although Congress and the president agreed on funding for the rest of the government last month, DHS is shutting down because Congressional leaders failed to reach a deal on reforms for ICE after federal agents killed two U.S. citizens last month. Democrats last week published a list of demands for Republicans in Washington to meet (Senator Katie Britt called them a “ridiculous Christmas list.”), and the White House sent a counteroffer Wednesday night that Democrats quickly rejected. And so the clock runs out — TSA, FEMA, and the Coast Guard will stop receiving new funding at midnight.
This is the third shutdown of this Congress. The last long one — over healthcare funding in October and November — lasted six weeks. Then, most voters blamed Trump and Republicans for the impasse. But Democrats took plenty of blame, too, and eventually folded before airport travel delays ruined Thanksgiving and funding for SNAP ran out.
But now, the leverage is clearly in the Democrats’ favor. An exclusive new poll provided to Strength In Numbers by Data for Progress shows a majority of voters support a Democratic proposal to fund TSA and FEMA while conditioning additional ICE money on major reforms — which they also support. This week’s Chart of the Week is: Voters back a Democratic deal on DHS funding.
I. Withholding ICE funding for reforms is popular
Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro, the top Democrat on the House Appropriations Committee, has proposed a bill that would fund TSA, the Coast Guard, and FEMA while holding back additional ICE money until reforms are enacted.
In a poll conducted Feb. 7-10, Data for Progress asked a sample of just over 1,000 voters whether they would support this plan. A clear majority said yes:
Overall, 56% of likely voters support the Democratic approach, while 37% oppose it — a 19-point margin. Democrats back it overwhelmingly (+55). Independents support it by 21 points. And even 40% of Republicans agree, with just 56% opposed.
But it’s not just the funding proposal that is popular with voters. Data for Progress also tested six specific conditions that Democrats want attached to DHS funding. Every single one earned majority support:
Body cameras for ICE agents top the list at 72% support vs. 18% opposition — a 54-point margin. Independent investigations of use-of-force incidents get 66% support (+44). Requiring judicial warrants before arrests: 62% (+34). Protecting sensitive locations like schools, churches, and hospitals: 57% (+26). Requiring agents to identify themselves and banning masks: 56% (+23). And ending the detention and deportation of U.S. citizens: 55% (+22).
The least popular condition on the list still has a 22-point margin in its favor.
Now, taking off my pollster hat, and putting on my analyst hat...
II. Why Democrats should hold the line
The overall approach of conditioning ICE funding on reforms is popular with a clear majority of Americans. Voters think ICE is too violent, too indiscriminate, and has generally “gone too far” in enforcing Trump’s agenda of mass deportations. They want Kristi Noem and Stephen Miller out of positions of power, and they agree with Chuck Schumer, who said Wednesday: “If [Republicans] don’t propose something that’s strong, that reins in ICE, that ends the killing — don’t expect our votes.”
It’s easy to be strong now, before the consequences of a government shutdown have set in. But in a few weeks, TSA screeners will start working without pay, FEMA disaster reimbursements will start getting spent down (flood season starts next month for many states), and the Coast Guard... well, it’s just bad optics to defund the Coast Guard.
The key questions for Congress are these: First, who will voters blame? And second, would ICE reforms be worth it?
In the last shutdown, when Democrats forced a six-week closure over health care, polls showed most — but not all — voters blamed Trump and the GOP for the lapse. However, the data was slowly moving against Democrats by the end, and they caved. Assuming a grace period of a couple weeks, party leaders have to ask themselves whether they can stomach facing responsibility for the shutdown while they negotiate.
And for their part, Republicans have to ask what they would do if they are percieved as causing the shutdown — and, either way, whether they want to face the wrath of public opinion. Or, they can strike a deal.
This poll suggests a deal is popular. But if Republicans don’t take it — if they insist on weak ICE reforms or the status quo — prepare to see a lot more polls like this one, showing reform for ICE is even popular with independents:
And this one, showing a defunding of ICE to its pre-2025 levels is supported by a 60% majority of voters, when that money is used instead to fund federal health care programs:
Today, at the moment of leverage, the data is clear. Democrats are holding a very strong hand. Voters want ICE reforms, they support conditioning funding on those reforms, and every single proposed condition commands majority support. Republicans can cut a deal that reins in the agency’s worst abuses, or they can own a shutdown that defunds the TSA and the Coast Guard to protect an agency most voters think has gone too far.
Last shutdown, Democrats folded. This time, the public is more clearly on their side, and the images of ICE agents killing U.S. citizens are fresh in voters’ minds. The leverage is there. Use it.
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Funding FEMA. that's a good one. the regime isn't providing disaster relief. NOT EVEN TO RED VOTERS.
I hope Dems hold the line.