Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir explain why polls could underestimate either the Democrats or the Republicans this November. You can make a good case either way.
Plus, will Democrats win a majority of governors’ mansions for the first time since 2009?
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A few big takeaways from the conversation:
Polls underestimated Republicans in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Why did they do that? Is it possible we’re seeing the same biases now? Or have pollsters overcorrected for their past misfires and are now undershooting Democrats?
Pollsters could be increasing the weight on very pro-Trump segments of the population. Due to possible error from something pollsters call “recall bias,” there might be too many MAGA Republicans in surveys—especially if disaffected Trump voters are claiming they did not in fact vote for him in the past.
Or, super-engaged respondents are flooding polls with pro-Democratic attitudes. Elliott finds that “high-effort” respondents lean Democratic. If they’re overrepresented in polls (as they have been in the past), this could be costing Republicans about a point or 2 on average.
Democrats look favored to net at least two governorships, and could win back a majority of states’ executive posts for the first time since 2009. But there are a ton of extremely close races, so if Democrats finish strong, that number could grow.
Thanks to everyone who joined us for the weekly livestream on Substack. We’ll be back next week!
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