Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir take reader questions for their final episode before Election Day. Replay the live conversation for our insights about how to read early vote data, and watch to watch for on election night.
Speaking of, don’t forget! David and I will be live with other members of The Downballot, Strength In Numbers, and FiftyPlusOne teams here on Substack on Nov. 3 at 6:45 PM ET. Join us for an extra-informative and fun live discussion of the election results as they come in.
Just click below to add a reminder to your calendar:
Apple | Google | Office 365 | Outlook | Outlook.com | Yahoo
This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions keep the show ad-free, fund the newsletter, and ensure we have the time it takes to do original data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our livestreams, so you can directly shape our conversations on the podcast.
Timestamps:
For general subjects covered:
00:00 Intro and programming notes
06:59 House forecast and the median seat count
13:04 Money in the Texas Senate race
25:21 Likely voter screens and the Maine poll gap
38:20 Early vote: how much to trust it
By question asked:
16:44 Q: Do poll results expose the limits of big money?
20:21 Q (Kelty): Is Musk's spending going to ads or voter mobilization?
22:58 Q: Does money have a diminishing role in elections?
24:23 Q (Robert): Why do the Marist and Citadel polls show such a large registered vs. likely voter gap?
31:36 Q (Anonymous): What are the top bellwether races, like Mike Lawler's seat?
35:56 Q (live reader): What's the first early drop to watch, like Loudoun County?
38:20 Q (Jane): How much stock should we put in early vote analysis?
46:34 Q (Ed): Are the polls misidentifying likely voters?
52:29 Q (Alex): Does Trump's rally strategy matter if he can't fill a stadium?
54:10 Q (final): What's the most plausible surprise result?
. . .
Thanks to everyone who joined us for the weekly livestream on Substack. We’ll be back next week!
As a reminder, paid subscribers to Strength In Numbers get to participate in our live Q&A! If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com.
You can also subscribe to us on your favorite podcast app to listen on your own time. And if you do listen via one of those apps, please drop us a five-star rating and review if you feel we’ve earned it — it really helps people discover the show!
You can read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so:
If you’re a reader of Strength in Numbers and haven’t yet subscribed to David’s newsletter, head to the-downballot.com.
And if you’re coming from David’s site, subscribe here to get the numbers behind the news.
