Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.
On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir show what could happen if the polls are underestimating either Democrats or Republicans ahead of the November elections. Given Democrats’ edge in most key Senate races today, we ask: How big would the miss need to be for Republicans to keep their majority? What about in the House? And how would these hypothetical misses compare to historical misses?
This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions keep the show ad-free, fund the newsletter, and ensure we have the time it takes to do original data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our livestreams, so you can directly shape our conversations on the podcast.
Here are the key timestamps from our podcast this week:
00:00 Three rules for reading the polls
03:05 The “named congressional ballot” and what it says about the House
19:53 Internal polls, candidate quality, and the Senate
25:29 What if the polls are wrong? Senate scenarios
43:48 The House under a big polling miss
Thanks to everyone who joined us for the weekly livestream on Substack. We’ll be back next week!
As a reminder, paid subscribers to Strength In Numbers get to participate in our live Q&A! If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com.
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