Democrats hit historic high in Fox News Poll as GOP loses ground on key issues
Plus: Trump's approval among independents falls to a record low, and the issue landscape shifts ahead of 2026. Your weekly political data roundup for February 1, 2026.
This is my weekly roundup of new political data published over the last seven days.
Dear readers,
This week, a new Fox News poll showed Democrats hitting the highest percent support on the generic ballot in the history of the survey, winning 52% of the vote vs 46% for the Republicans. This puts them firmly in “wave” territory for November: Per Fox, “The current 52% Democratic support is the highest recorded for either party; the previous high was 50% for the Democrats in October 2017.”
(A note on the Fox poll: despite the network’s reputation, the survey is conducted by a bipartisan duo — Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R).)
Plus: The survey also reveals how the issue landscape is changing ahead of the midterms. And a new YouGov survey finds Trump’s approval among independents has cratered to a second-term low.
On deck this week: Tuesday’s Deep Dive will look at what voters like and dislike about the Democratic and Republican parties, in their own words, and Friday’s Chart of the Week will respond to the week’s news.
Let’s dig into the numbers.
I. Democrats hit historic high in Fox News Poll as GOP loses ground on key issues
Aside from the large lead for the Democrats (+6 is above average), the Fox News Poll found some striking shifts in issue ownership. Fox finds the Democrats lead on affordability (+14), helping the middle class (+14), and healthcare (+21), while Republicans hold advantages on border security (+15), national security (+12), and immigration (+5) — but their previous edges on taxes, foreign policy, and the deficit have evaporated. Those issues are now essentially tied.
Compared to 2023, the last time Fox asked these questions before Trump became president, support for the GOP is down on immigration by 5 points (10 points since 2022), national security by 8, government spending by 11, foreign policy by 12, taxes by 12, and affordability/prices by 26:
Some commentary from me: A lot of people have noted that Republicans still retain an advantage on immigration despite the negative backlash to Immigration and Customs Enforcement this last month. I think this interpretation is a little too reductive for two reasons. First, the question is a retrospective question, baking in a lot of prior beliefs about which party has typically handled the issue better. And the trend is moving in Democrats’ direction, suggesting recalibration for recent events.
But second, electorally speaking, what has been a better predictor of election outcomes historically is the percent of voters who say they think the Democratic/Republican party is best at handling each individual’s single most important issue. Per Gallup below, whichever party has led on this question in the past 20 years has won the subsequent presidential election. The results also predict midterms reasonably well if you apply a slight penalty for the party in control of the White House.
In my polling, Democrats currently lead on this question 46 to 38%.
Democrats do have some branding work to do, and their plan on immigration is not as clear as Trump’s — voters probably take that into account when responding to each party’s imagined position. I would suggest a second look at where this question is in a few months.
Meanwhile, Trump’s standing with independents continues to deteriorate. The Economist/YouGov poll conducted Jan. 23-26 found Trump at -18 net approval overall but -40 among independents. That’s a new record low across both his first and second terms.
The generic ballot this far out isn’t predictive of the final result — as I wrote earlier this month, the out-party typically gains about 5 points between now and November. But it does tell us where the race starts. And right now, Democrats are starting from their strongest position in years.
II. What Strength In Numbers published last week
In case you missed it, here’s Sunday night’s emergency post about the special election in Texas (with original precinct-level vote analysis):
Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing
I am not going to make a habit of covering breaking news, but when there’s a chart to be made, I really just can’t help myself.
Friday’s Chart of the Week post looked at the gap between Trump’s electoral success and the popularity of his actual policies:
On Tuesday, I wrote about how the ICE shootings in Minneapolis are reshaping public opinion on immigration enforcement:
And last Sunday’s roundup covered the collapse in support for ICE and Trump’s 2024 coalition:
If you’re a frequent reader of Strength In Numbers, I’m confident you will get a lot of value out of a paid subscription. Paying members get access to Tuesday’s premium Deep Dives, the full archive, and the knowledge that they’re supporting independent, data-driven political journalism.
III. Even more numbers!
From my friends Mary Radcliffe and Tia Yang: https://votehub.com/2026/01/27/off-year-turnout-hit-a-20-year-high-in-2025/
Young Trump voters are having regrets: These Young Voters Are Starting to Regret Their Vote for Trump
Two-thirds say middle-class lifestyle now out of reach: Voters See a Middle-Class Lifestyle as Drifting Out of Reach, Poll Finds
What’s really driving affordability anxiety: What Americans Really Mean by ‘Affordability’
Pew finds opposition to Trump’s restrictive immigration policies: How Americans view key Trump administration immigration policies
Americans split on ICE behavior post-Minneapolis: How Americans See Immigration Officers’ Behaviors and Civilian Actions
Few support Greenland takeover: Few Americans support Trump’s proposed takeover of Greenland
Americans want Trump focused on the economy, not foreign policy: Americans would like Trump to deprioritize foreign policy — especially Greenland — and focus on the economy
What each party’s base wants prioritized: The issues that Democrats and Republicans want their parties to focus on more
Yahoo roundup of post-Minneapolis immigration polling: Are Trump’s immigration policies still popular after the fatal ICE shootings in Minneapolis? Here’s what the polls say.
Lee Drutman on Minneapolis as a potential turning point on immigration: Minneapolis Has Three of Four Ingredients for a Turning Point
Charles Franklin with immigration polling context: Some perspective on immigration polling
Eric Levitz on what the polls say about Trump’s agenda: Opinion | The Polls Are Clear. Americans Don’t Want This.
Jonathan Bernstein on Trump’s unpopularity: Trump, Unpopular
Sabato’s Crystal Ball on Senate outlook: The Senate: A Couple of Rating Changes in Favor of Democrats, but Republicans Still Favored Overall
New Census data on U.S. population shifts: What the Census Says About the U.S. Population, in Six Charts
Political realignment, explained via The Simpsons: How The Simpsons Explain America’s Political Realignment
IV. Polling update
The Strength In Numbers polling averages have moved to fiftyplusone.news.
Trump’s net job approval is -18, holding near the worst marks of his second term
The generic ballot is D+4.5, up from R+5 at this point last year
And that’s it for this week! Thanks for reading. Strength In Numbers will be back in your inbox Tuesday!
Got more for next week? Email your links or add to the comments below!
Elliott
I don’t think Trump cares about polls and he definitely doesn’t care about protests. The only thing that seems to give him pause is the markets moving negatively. But even then, this is the same guy who is going to give himself 10 billion from suing the justice department and he’s out here saying he’s going to give the money to charities.
The same family who defrauded a children’s cancer charity.
I think this keeps getting worse and Trump is going to try and jail as many people as possible, charge the with felonies and stop them from being able to vote. There’s no bottom for him.
A Blue Wave in November doesn't excuse sitting Democrats from doing everything they can today.