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Why polls might be underestimating *Democrats*, not Republicans
Potential bias in how voters recall voting in 2024 costs Democrats about a point of support. Surveys of registered voters might also underestimate the…
Sep 15
•
G. Elliott Morris
152
9
26
If Democrats win, one reason will be great recruitment
Plus, Democrats hit +7 in our generic ballot average for the first time this cycle. Your weekly political data roundup for September 13, 2026.
Sep 13
•
G. Elliott Morris
176
8
35
Everyone is wrong about low-turnout voters
They care most about affordability, and disapprove of Trump’s job as president at much higher rate than engaged voters — including among Republicans
Sep 11
•
G. Elliott Morris
300
15
57
Republicans who think "Trumpapalooza" will work misunderstand why Trump won in 2024
Disaffected Trump voters like the man less than motivated MAGA partisans
Sep 10
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
David Nir
147
10
24
1:03:41
The flawed thinking behind “Trumpapalooza”
The president thinks he can activate lower-turnout voters who like his agenda. But polls show his former supporters oppose his key policies, and don’t…
Sep 10
•
G. Elliott Morris
184
13
26
All polls are models now
Traditional polling is dead. Pollsters need to do a better job communicating about all the ways potential error enters their work.
Sep 9
•
G. Elliott Morris
141
9
36
Notes on building an independent media and polling ecosystem in 2026
For a special Labor Day edition of the Sunday roundup, I’ve written some personal thoughts on journalism, polling, forecasting, and the value of staying…
Sep 6
•
G. Elliott Morris
197
25
34
The “priorities gap” and the midterms
Voters want a president who works on their problems. They say Trump isn’t — and he and Republicans are losing support because of it
Sep 4
•
G. Elliott Morris
203
15
37
Donald Trump is acting like he *wants* to lose the midterms
From data centers to the White House ballroom, the president is pushing for things that nobody wants — and Republicans are taking notice
Sep 3
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
David Nir
224
14
28
47:26
What voters really mean when they say the Democrats should "fight" more
81% of Democrats say their party should focus on ending Trump's corruption, while 54% want it to prioritize affordability. In open-text response they…
Sep 1
•
G. Elliott Morris
202
47
55
August 2026
One out of six Trump voters says they wouldn't vote for him again
Plus, a few articles on why polling isn't broken #ackshually, and YouGov’s LV-RV gap. Your weekly political data roundup for August 30, 2026.
Aug 30
•
G. Elliott Morris
242
29
48
Two big questions about the polls right now
Are respondents too progressive? And is weighting by past vote increasing support for Republicans?
Aug 28
•
G. Elliott Morris
147
5
24
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