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What the special election in Tennessee says about the 2026 midterms
Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly…
Dec 3
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G. Elliott Morris
245
15
56
Eight charts that explain why "affordability" is suddenly everywhere
All politics is affordability now
Dec 2
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G. Elliott Morris
151
20
29
November 2025
How can we be sure changes in polls reflect real changes in opinion?
A technical response to a comment on last Friday's chart about Democrats' generic ballot polling
Nov 28
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G. Elliott Morris
67
9
9
What if America used ranked-choice voting for presidential primaries?
Plus: an update on non-voters; the secret sauce behind my polling models; and updating my list of political biases and how I account for them. This is…
Nov 25
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G. Elliott Morris
111
11
17
Two new polls show learning about Trump's policies moves public opinion toward Democrats
Your weekly political data roundup for November 13, 2025
Nov 23
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G. Elliott Morris
145
35
24
Democrats expand lead in U.S. House polls this week
Recent polls have shown a big shift toward the Democrats in the House generic ballot. If historical patterns of out-party gains continue in 2026…
Nov 21
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G. Elliott Morris
150
11
38
The hidden axis: the left-right spectrum has a non-ideology problem
Most voters want a party that emphasizes cost of living issues and makes the world a better place. Few Americans think in solidly ideologically terms…
Nov 20
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G. Elliott Morris
269
28
65
New poll: Democrats lead the 2026 House generic ballot, and their edge widens when voters are reminded Republicans control Congress
Plus: Voters see both parties as out of touch, but for different reasons; Trump hits new low on pocketbook issues; Large majorities oppose ending ACA…
Nov 18
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G. Elliott Morris
143
28
34
Trump hits a record low with political independents — in every state
Your weekly political data roundup for November 16, 2025
Nov 16
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G. Elliott Morris
250
48
48
One way the shutdown deal might actually help Democrats
A plurality of voters approve of the deal to end the government shutdown. Democrats have an opportunity to claim they saved SNAP & other government…
Nov 14
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G. Elliott Morris
180
24
40
You should quit social media for good
Platforms optimized for engagement warp our politics, erode attention, and harm our wellbeing. Here’s how I minimize time on the (anti‑)social web.
Nov 12
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G. Elliott Morris
560
41
134
Donald Trump is Joe Biden now
The president's numbers on prices are where Biden's were during peak inflation in 2022-23.
Nov 10
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G. Elliott Morris
250
30
51
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