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House race polling also points to a big blue wave
Our new "named congressional ballot" aligns with other metrics predicting Democratic dominance
Published on The Downballot
•
5 hrs ago
What is early voting telling us about the 2026 midterms?
A regularly updating live blog for early voting data and news, Strength In Numbers style
Oct 13
•
G. Elliott Morris
224
37
37
Charlie Cook says there’s no “blue wave.” I think he’s wrong.
Plus, Democrats are winning the ad war despite the GOP's cash edge. Your weekly political data roundup for October 11, 2026.
Oct 11
•
G. Elliott Morris
329
87
80
Taking a break today
I’m still recovering from being sick and also at a conference today
Oct 9
•
G. Elliott Morris
62
17
3
The case for and against the polls
Elliott and David explain both sides of the current debate over the accuracy of the polls, and talk through the state of play in races for governor in…
Oct 8
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
David Nir
147
4
23
1:06:22
Join our private pre-election briefing for Founding Members!
The Downballot and Strength In Numbers join forces to make sense of the midterms
Oct 8
•
G. Elliott Morris
and
David Nir
32
8
If the polls end up missing, this may have been our early warning sign
“Low-effort” survey respondents vote very differently than other poll-takers, and that could be biasing polls by up to 3.5 points against
Oct 6
•
G. Elliott Morris
207
57
40
Polls and "fundamentals" basically agree about the blue wave
When you look at state-level election results, fundraising, and the national environment, surprising state polls actually make a lot of sense. Your…
Oct 4
•
G. Elliott Morris
181
22
30
Paul Krugman, Elliott Morris, and David Nir on the blue wave
We discuss four indicators pointing to Democratic success in November, why the polls could be wrong, and some warnings for the party about anti-status…
Oct 3
•
G. Elliott Morris
211
5
42
48:02
Amid rising diesel prices, Republicans turn against Trump for first time on handling inflation
In our September poll, 52% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents disapprove of Trump's handling of prices. That could be dragging down…
Oct 2
•
G. Elliott Morris
228
15
57
How much worse can things get for the GOP?
33 days out, the House is looking like a lock for Democrats, while Republicans are losing their grip on the Senate. But how much should you believe the…
Oct 1
•
G. Elliott Morris
230
12
37
56:47
September 2026
By 30 points, voters oppose sending ICE agents to the polls
Americans will tolerate "federal Justice Department monitors," but oppose other actions of federal "election security"
Sep 29
•
G. Elliott Morris
152
8
34
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