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The Senators who beat expectations; + a FAQ about WAR/WARP

Out estimates of the Wins Above Replacement for U.S. Senators as of 2024

Sep 17, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris and Mark Rieke

The U.S. House candidates who moved the needle in 2024

Announcing our new measure of candidate quality, the Wins Above Replacement Probability (WARP)

Aug 12, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris and Mark Rieke

The Democratic image is underwater — but they're not losing

The party has a near-historically low favorability rating. This is mostly due to disaffection on the left, where voters still say they'll vote…

Jul 29, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris and Mary Radcliffe

The numbers are in: Democrats are fired up

A deep dive into two recent special elections in Florida shows the #Resistance is back and stronger than ever

Jul 3, 2025 • Jesse Richardson and G. Elliott Morris

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