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The Senators who beat expectations; + a FAQ about WAR/WARP

Our estimate of the Wins Above Replacement for U.S. Senators as of 2024

Sep 17, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris and Mark Rieke

The U.S. House candidates who moved the needle in 2024

Announcing our new measure of candidate quality, the Wins Above Replacement Probability (WARP)

Aug 12, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris and Mark Rieke

The Democratic image is underwater — but they're not losing

Polls show the party near a 30-year low, yet they’re favored in the House popular vote.

Jul 29, 2025 • G. Elliott Morris and Mary Radcliffe

The numbers are in: Democrats are fired up

A deep dive into two recent special elections in Florida shows the #Resistance is back and stronger than ever

Jul 3, 2025 • Jesse and G. Elliott Morris

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