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The Senators who beat expectations; + a FAQ about WAR/WARP

Out estimates of the Wins Above Replacement for U.S. Senators as of 2024

Sep 17 •

G. Elliott Morris

and

The U.S. House candidates who moved the needle in 2024

Announcing our new measure of candidate quality, the Wins Above Replacement Probability (WARP)

Aug 12 •

G. Elliott Morris

and

The Democratic image is underwater — but they're not losing

The party has a near-historically low favorability rating. This is mostly due to disaffection on the left, where voters still say they'll vote…

Jul 29 •

G. Elliott Morris

and

The numbers are in: Democrats are fired up

A deep dive into two recent special elections in Florida shows the #Resistance is back and stronger than ever

Jul 3 •

Jesse Richardson

and

G. Elliott Morris

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