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Everyone is wrong about low-turnout voters
They care most about affordability, and disapprove of Trump’s job as president at much higher rate than engaged voters — including among Republicans
Sep 11
•
G. Elliott Morris
298
15
57
The “priorities gap” and the midterms
Voters want a president who works on their problems. They say Trump isn’t — and he and Republicans are losing support because of it
Sep 4
•
G. Elliott Morris
203
15
37
Two big questions about the polls right now
Are respondents too progressive? And is weighting by past vote increasing support for Republicans?
Aug 28
•
G. Elliott Morris
147
5
24
Are the polls overestimating Democrats again?
It is tempting to “unskew” polls after repeat misses. But predicting future poll bias only works until it doesn’t
Aug 21
•
G. Elliott Morris
180
16
34
It’s not just young Democrats who like lefty candidates
Both young and old Democrats rate figures like Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez highly. But the young sharply criticize their party, driving…
Aug 14
•
G. Elliott Morris
180
15
41
Progressives are most likely to say the political system needs "major, disruptive changes"
And anti-system voters rate figures like Zohran Mamdani, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez higher than mainstream Dems, even controlling for age and ideology
Aug 7
•
G. Elliott Morris
164
18
28
Cheap gas won't save Trump, now at a new all-time approval low
The price of gas fell in June, but Trump's approval on inflation didn't rise accordingly
Jul 31
•
G. Elliott Morris
201
10
46
Democratic voters want the party to be more moderate — and more socialist?
The trouble with polling about ideological labels
Jun 12
•
G. Elliott Morris
224
30
58
The real reason Democrats lost in 2024
The DNC "autopsy" omits the biggest reason Democrats lost in 2024. In doing so, it fails to prepare the party for the future
May 22
•
G. Elliott Morris
560
52
180
You can't gerrymander a bad approval rating
Trump's net approval is historically weak for this point in a presidency — and his approval on handling prices and the economy is even worse than Joe…
May 15
•
G. Elliott Morris
245
14
60
Pundits are wrong about the Democrats’ "missing" voters
In individual-level polling data, two-thirds of Trump disapprovers who aren’t backing Democrats on the generic ballot look like closeted Republicans…
May 1
•
G. Elliott Morris
262
27
77
The incredible shrinking Trump coalition
An updated look at the president's approval rating by geography and demographics shows just how narrow his coalition has become.
Apr 24
•
G. Elliott Morris
265
11
60
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