Strength In Numbers

Strength In Numbers

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Ahead of State of the Union, Trump's approval falls to new low of 37%
The new Strength In Numbers/Verasight poll finds Democrats leading on the generic ballot by 10 points among registered voters, and Trump approval on…
 • G. Elliott Morris
Political journalism needs fewer "takes" and more analytical legwork
Why I think what you’re getting with this newsletter is different, and why it matters right now
 • G. Elliott Morris
Trump decides he'll FAFO on Supreme Court tariff ruling
The tariff ruling let President Trump blame judges and walk away from an unpopular policy. Instead, he attacked his own justices and announced new…
 • G. Elliott Morris
The shutdown helps Democrats by changing what "immigration" means to voters
Trump's approval on immigration varies by nearly 20 points depending on whether respondents are asked about border security, deportations, ICE, or…
 • G. Elliott Morris
50:01
Democrats should think out of the box for how to win in 2028
Democrats don't have to move right to win back Trump voters. Also: the DHS shutdown as electoral strategy, and The Argument's trans rights polling…
 • G. Elliott Morris and David Nir
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Strength In Numbers
Strength In Numbers
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris.
Top posts
Meet America’s new swing voter: The anti-system voter. (Or: Why Democrats should think through nominating AOC in 2028)
A new paper finds anti-system sentiment — not left-right ideology — decided the 2016 and 2024 elections
 • G. Elliott Morris
If you're a poll junkie, we have news for you
More polls and averages are now available at FiftyPlusOne.news
 • G. Elliott Morris
The backlash against Trump is showing up in hard data, not just polls
New data on protest activity shows organized anti-Trump actions are 4x the size they were in the president's first term. Your weekly political data…
 • G. Elliott Morris
Democrats have the leverage in the shutdown over ICE
A majority of voters supports funding TSA and FEMA while conditioning additional ICE money on reforms
 • G. Elliott Morris
How "normie" voters feel about Trump now
Low-information voters have turned on Trump. Also: the SAVE America Act, and Gallup's exit from approval polling is less dramatic than you think.
 • G. Elliott Morris and David Nir
47:37
The less voters knew, the more they liked Trump in 2024. Not Anymore
The least-engaged Americans have swung 25 points against him since 2024 — about twice the shift among everyone else. Trump has flattened the engagement…
 • G. Elliott Morris
The election that broke Democratic Party strategy
Bill Clinton's victory in 1992 is supposed to prove that Democrats win when they move to the center. The data tells a different story
 • G. Elliott Morris
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The latest from
G. Elliott Morris
Ahead of State of the Union, Trump's approval falls to new low of 37%
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Recent posts

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52 percent of U.S. adults say Trump has made the economy worse
Three major polls this week show Americans remain deeply pessimistic about affordability, opportunity, and their economic future. Your weekly political…
 • G. Elliott Morris
What Americans actually want done about ICE
Democratic proposals for reform earn supermajority support among U.S. voters
 • G. Elliott Morris
48:36
Yes, Democrats should run on ICE
Elliott and David Nir talk about 2026 strategy, the special election in Texas, and, voters' anxieties about the economy and democracy
 • G. Elliott Morris and David Nir
More evidence that a large share of "moderates" are non-ideological
A reader replicated my analysis of political ideology using alternative data
 • G. Elliott Morris
57:40
The Texas special election and 2026 political environment
Recapping Taylor Rehmet’s win in Texas last Saturday, immigration polling, and what's in store for 2026
 • G. Elliott Morris and Michael Podhorzer
Democrats hit historic high in Fox News Poll as GOP loses ground on key issues
Plus: Trump's approval among independents falls to a record low, and the issue landscape shifts ahead of 2026. Your weekly political data roundup for…
 • G. Elliott Morris
Blue wave watch: Democrat flips Trump +17 Texas Senate seat in 32-point swing
A nerdy look at precinct-level data from the TX SD-9 special election
 • G. Elliott Morris
Americans voted for Trump, but never supported Trumpism
Donald Trump's policies have always been less popular than his promises
 • G. Elliott Morris

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Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris.
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