Strength In Numbers

Strength In Numbers

Home
Podcast
Premium
Projects
Polls
Data Lab
Data
Book
Contact
Archive
Newsletters
About
Notes on building an independent media and polling ecosystem in 2026
For a special Labor Day edition of the Sunday roundup, I’ve written some personal thoughts on journalism, polling, forecasting, and the value of staying…
 • G. Elliott Morris
Democrats strongly favored to take the House, Senate tilts Democratic in our new election forecast (crosspost)
Our brand-new election forecast for the 2026 congressional midterms puts Democrats at above even odds to take control of both chambers
 • G. Elliott Morris
The “priorities gap” and the midterms
Voters want a president who works on their problems. They say Trump isn’t — and he and Republicans are losing support because of it
 • G. Elliott Morris
47:26
Donald Trump is acting like he *wants* to lose the midterms
From data centers to the White House ballroom, the president is pushing for things that nobody wants — and Republicans are taking notice
 • G. Elliott Morris and David Nir
What voters really mean when they say the Democrats should "fight" more
81% of Democrats say their party should focus on ending Trump's corruption, while 54% want it to prioritize affordability. In open-text response they…
 • G. Elliott Morris
Strength In Numbers
Strength In Numbers
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris.
Top posts
One out of six Trump voters says they wouldn't vote for him again
Plus, a few articles on why polling isn't broken #ackshually, and YouGov’s LV-RV gap. Your weekly political data roundup for August 30, 2026.
 • G. Elliott Morris
Two big questions about the polls right now
Are respondents too progressive? And is weighting by past vote increasing support for Republicans?
 • G. Elliott Morris
Deep Dive episode: Everything you wanted to know about prediction markets, with Rajiv Sethi
Are markets better than pollsters? Why did the whiff on the pope so bad?
 • G. Elliott Morris and Rajiv Sethi
58:34
Poll: New low for Trump on prices and foreign policy, now net negative on border security
The president lost his last positive issue, and the gap between strong disapproval and strong approval is now nearly 3-to-1 (50% vs 17%)
 • G. Elliott Morris
An updated look at Trump's approval rating in every neighborhood
Plus, what words voters use to describe the president and how thats changed over time. Your weekly political data roundup for August 23, 2026.
 • G. Elliott Morris
Are the polls overestimating Democrats again?
It is tempting to “unskew” polls after repeat misses. But predicting future poll bias only works until it doesn’t
 • G. Elliott Morris
A troubling trend of fake polls and lying pollsters, with FiftyPlusOne’s Mary Radcliffe
We discuss three recent examples of fabricated or undisclosed campaign polling, and how to stay vigilant in the wild west of cheap and fake surveys
 • G. Elliott Morris and Mary Radcliffe
46:40
My links
Why subscribe?
Support independent, data-driven journalism
My personal website
STRENGTH IN NUMBERS, the book
Other writing
Words at FiveThirtyEight, ABC, The Economist, NYT etc
Community
FiftyPlusOne!
Polls and polling averages for every imaginable topic
The Downballot
Good Authority
Mischiefs of Faction
Recommendations
View all 19
the @smotus report
the @smotus report
Seth Masket
Opinion Today
Opinion Today
Opinion Today
Wake Up To Politics
Wake Up To Politics
Gabe Fleisher
Good Politics/Bad Politics
Good Politics/Bad Politics
Jonathan Bernstein
Imperfect Information
Imperfect Information
Rajiv Sethi
The latest from
G. Elliott Morris
Notes on building an independent media and polling ecosystem in 2026
User's avatar
Strength In Numbers
Quality data. Accurate analysis. New posts 2-4x/week. Subscribe to get them in your inbox:
Strength In Numbers

Recent posts

View all
What percent of Wisconsin likely Democratic primary voters are ages 18-30?
This is a surprisingly important question that nobody has an exact answer to
 • G. Elliott Morris
Is Abdul El-Sayed going to lose Michigan?
The Democratic nominee is running behind expectations, and everyone thinks they know why. But it's early — and I think we all know a lot less than we…
 • G. Elliott Morris
KILL THE VAMPIRES
A follow-up on Wisconsin's polling miss and potential scale of non-response from moderates
 • G. Elliott Morris
It’s not just young Democrats who like lefty candidates
Both young and old Democrats rate figures like Zohran Mamdani and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez highly. But the young sharply criticize their party, driving…
 • G. Elliott Morris
30:49
Can we trust the polls in 2026?
Maybe, maybe not — but primary polling isn't going to tell you either way
 • G. Elliott Morris and David Nir
I reanalyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong.
What raw data from Wisconsin's Democratic primary reveals about demographic weighting, late movement, and who answers polls
 • G. Elliott Morris
Why polling primary elections is so hard
Senate and governor primary election polls are off by 13 points on average, and 20+ points about 10% of the time
 • G. Elliott Morris
Voters say the political system needs big changes — and that's driving Democratic gains for 2026
Among moderates and conservatives who say they want "major, disruptive change" in politics, Democrats lead the generic ballot by 50 points
 • G. Elliott Morris

Subscribe

Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris.
AboutArchiveRecommendationsSitemap
Strength In Numbers
© 2026 G. Elliott Morris · Privacy ∙ Terms ∙ Collection notice
Start your SubstackGet the app
Substack is the home for great culture