Strength In Numbers

Strength In Numbers

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If Democrats win, one reason will be great recruitment
Plus, Democrats hit +7 in our generic ballot average for the first time this cycle. Your weekly political data roundup for September 13, 2026.
 • G. Elliott Morris
Democrats strongly favored to take the House, Senate tilts Democratic in our new election forecast (crosspost)
Our brand-new election forecast for the 2026 congressional midterms puts Democrats at above even odds to take control of both chambers
 • G. Elliott Morris
Everyone is wrong about low-turnout voters
They care most about affordability, and disapprove of Trump’s job as president at much higher rate than engaged voters — including among Republicans
 • G. Elliott Morris
1:03:41
Republicans who think "Trumpapalooza" will work misunderstand why Trump won in 2024
Disaffected Trump voters like the man less than motivated MAGA partisans
 • G. Elliott Morris and David Nir
The flawed thinking behind “Trumpapalooza”
The president thinks he can activate lower-turnout voters who like his agenda. But polls show his former supporters oppose his key policies, and don’t…
 • G. Elliott Morris
Strength In Numbers
Strength In Numbers
Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris.
Top posts
All polls are models now
Traditional polling is dead. Pollsters need to do a better job communicating about all the ways potential error enters their work.
 • G. Elliott Morris
Notes on building an independent media and polling ecosystem in 2026
For a special Labor Day edition of the Sunday roundup, I’ve written some personal thoughts on journalism, polling, forecasting, and the value of staying…
 • G. Elliott Morris
The “priorities gap” and the midterms
Voters want a president who works on their problems. They say Trump isn’t — and he and Republicans are losing support because of it
 • G. Elliott Morris
Donald Trump is acting like he *wants* to lose the midterms
From data centers to the White House ballroom, the president is pushing for things that nobody wants — and Republicans are taking notice
 • G. Elliott Morris and David Nir
47:26
What voters really mean when they say the Democrats should "fight" more
81% of Democrats say their party should focus on ending Trump's corruption, while 54% want it to prioritize affordability. In open-text response they…
 • G. Elliott Morris
One out of six Trump voters says they wouldn't vote for him again
Plus, a few articles on why polling isn't broken #ackshually, and YouGov’s LV-RV gap. Your weekly political data roundup for August 30, 2026.
 • G. Elliott Morris
Two big questions about the polls right now
Are respondents too progressive? And is weighting by past vote increasing support for Republicans?
 • G. Elliott Morris
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If Democrats win, one reason will be great recruitment
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Strength In Numbers
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Strength In Numbers

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58:34
Deep Dive episode: Everything you wanted to know about prediction markets, with Rajiv Sethi
Are markets better than pollsters? Why did the whiff on the pope so bad?
 • G. Elliott Morris and Rajiv Sethi
Poll: New low for Trump on prices and foreign policy, now net negative on border security
The president lost his last positive issue, and the gap between strong disapproval and strong approval is now nearly 3-to-1 (50% vs 17%)
 • G. Elliott Morris
An updated look at Trump's approval rating in every neighborhood
Plus, what words voters use to describe the president and how thats changed over time. Your weekly political data roundup for August 23, 2026.
 • G. Elliott Morris
Are the polls overestimating Democrats again?
It is tempting to “unskew” polls after repeat misses. But predicting future poll bias only works until it doesn’t
 • G. Elliott Morris
46:40
A troubling trend of fake polls and lying pollsters, with FiftyPlusOne’s Mary Radcliffe
We discuss three recent examples of fabricated or undisclosed campaign polling, and how to stay vigilant in the wild west of cheap and fake surveys
 • G. Elliott Morris and Mary Radcliffe
What percent of Wisconsin likely Democratic primary voters are ages 18-30?
This is a surprisingly important question that nobody has an exact answer to
 • G. Elliott Morris
Is Abdul El-Sayed going to lose Michigan?
The Democratic nominee is running behind expectations, and everyone thinks they know why. But it's early — and I think we all know a lot less than we…
 • G. Elliott Morris
KILL THE VAMPIRES
A follow-up on Wisconsin's polling miss and potential scale of non-response from moderates
 • G. Elliott Morris

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Independent, data-driven analysis of politics, public opinion polls, and elections. From author, journalist, and pollster G. Elliott Morris.
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